Codiak BioSciences (Codiak BioSciences) Predictability Rank

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What is Codiak BioSciences Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Codiak BioSciences Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Codiak BioSciences (Codiak BioSciences) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Codiak BioSciences Inc (OTCPK:CDAKQ) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

35 Cambridge Park Drive, Suite 500, Cambridge, MA, USA, 02140

Website

https://www.codiakbio.com

Codiak BioSciences Inc is a development-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on the development of exosome-based therapeutics for the treatment of a wide spectrum of diseases with high unmet medical need. The company have utilized engEx Platform to generate a pipeline of engineered exosomes, aimed at treating a broad range of diseases, including oncology, neuro-oncology, neurology, neuromuscular disease, infectious disease and rare disease.

Executives

Yalonda Howze	officer: See Remarks	C/O CODIAK BIOSCIENCES, INC., 35 CAMBRIDGEPARK DRIVE, SUITE 500, CAMBRIDGE MA 02140
Sriram Sathyanarayanan	officer: Chief Scientific Officer	C/O CODIAK BIOSCIENCES, INC., 35 CAMBRIDGEPARK DRIVE, SUITE 500, CAMBRIDGE MA 02140
Nicole Barna	officer: See Remarks	C/O CODIAK BIOSCIENCES, INC., 35 CAMBRIDGEPARK DRIVE, SUITE 500, CAMBRIDGE MA 02140
Douglas E Williams	director, officer: President & CEO	C/O AMGEN INC, ONE AMGEN CENTER DR, THOUSAND OAKS CA 91320-1799
Linda Bain	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O BLUEBIRD BIO, INC., 840 MEMORIAL DRIVE, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Konstantin Konstantinov	officer: See Remarks	C/O CODIAK BIOSCIENCES, INC., 500 TECHNOLOGY SQUARE, 9TH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Arch Venture Fund Viii Overage, L.p.	10 percent owner	C/O ARCH VENTURE PARTNERS VIII, LLC, 8755 W. HIGGINS ROAD, SUITE 1025, CHICAGO IL 60631
David J Mauro	officer: Chief Medical Officer	36 TERRELL DRIVE, WASHINGTON CROSS PA 18977
Arundathy N. Pandite	director	1018 W 11TH ST., SUITE 100, AUSTIN TX 78703
Benny Sorensen	officer: See Remarks	C/O CODIAK BIOSCIENCES, INC., 35 CAMBRIDGEPARK DRIVE, SUITE 500, CAMBRIDGE MA 02140
Anne-virginie Eggimann	director	C/O CODIAK BIOSCIENCES, INC., 35 CAMBRIDGEPARK DRIVE, SUITE 500, CAMBRIDGE MA 02140
Jennifer J. Wheler	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O CODIAK BIOSCIENCES, INC., 35 CAMBRIDGEPARK DRIVE, SUITE 500, CAMBRIDGE MA 02140
Briggs Morrison	director	C/O SYNDAX PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 400 TOTTEN POND ROAD, SUITE 110, WALTHAM MA 02451
Alaska Permanent Fund Corp	10 percent owner	801 WEST 10TH STREET, SUITE 302, JUNEAU AK 99801
Flagship Ventures Fund V, L.p.	10 percent owner	ONE MEMORIAL DRIVE, 7TH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142