Chiasma (Chiasma) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2015. Start your Free Trial

What is Chiasma Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Chiasma Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Chiasma Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Chiasma's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Chiasma (Chiasma) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Chiasma Inc (NAS:CHMA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

140 Kendrick Street, Building C East, Needham, MA, USA, 02494

Website

https://www.chiasmapharma.com

Chiasma Inc is a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on improving the lives of patients who face challenges associated with existing treatments for rare and serious chronic disease. The US Food and Drug Administration, or the FDA, approved MYCAPSSA for long-term maintenance treatment in acromegaly patients who have responded to and tolerated treatment with octreotide or lanreotide. MYCAPSSA is the first and only oral somatostatin analog, or SSA, approved by the FDA and the first product approved by the FDA utilizing TPE technology. The company is focused on the commercialization of MYCAPSSA for the treatment of patients with acromegaly in the United States and developing and seeking regulatory approval of MYCAPSSA in the European Union.

Executives

Roni Mamluk	director	CHIASMA, INC., 60WELLS AVENUE, NEWTON MA 02459
David M Stack	director	THE MEDICINES CO, 8 CAMPUS DRIVE, PARSIPPANY NJ 07054
Raj Kannan	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O CHIASMA, INC. 460 TOTTEN POND RD, SUITE 530, WALTHAM MA 02451
John F Thero	director	C/O AMARIN PHARMA, INC., 1430 ROUTE 6, BEDMINSTER NJ 07921
Bard Geesaman	director	C/O MPM CAPITAL 450 KENDALL STREET CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Todd Foley	director	THE JOHN HANCOCK TOWER, 200 CLARENDON STREET 54TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
John A Scarlett	director	C/O GERON CORPORATION, 230 CONSTITUTION DRIVE, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Scott Minick	director	C/O BIND THERAPEUTICS, INC. 325 VASSAR ST CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Anand Varadan	officer: EVP, Chief Commerical Officer	C/O CHIASMA, INC., 60 WELLS AVENUE, NEWTON MA 02459
Lee Giguere	officer: General Counsel	C/O CHIASMA, INC. 460 TOTTEN POND ROAD, SUITE 530 WALTHAM MA 02451
William Ludlam	officer: See Remarks	C/O CHIASMA, INC. 460 TOTTEN POND ROAD, SUITE 530 WALTHAM MA 02451
Drew Enamait	officer: VP, Fin & Admin, PAO	C/O CHIASMA, INC. 275 WYMAN STREET, SUITE 250 WALTHAM MA 02451
Mark J. Fitzpatrick	officer: President	101 MAIN STREET, SUITE 1850, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
James R Tobin	director	C/O CURIS INC, 4 MAGUIRE ROAD, LEXINGTON MA 02421
Ansbert Gadicke	director	THE JOHN HANCOCK TOWER, 200 CLARENDON STREET, 54TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116