CLMT (Calumet) Predictability Rank

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What is Calumet Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Calumet Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Calumet Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Calumet Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Chemicals » Calumet Inc (NAS:CLMT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1060 N Capitol Avenue, Suite 6-401, Indianapolis, IN, USA, 46204-1044

Website

https://www.calumet.com

Calumet Inc is a producer of specialty products, including base oils, specialty oils, solvents, esters, and waxes, as well as a variety of fuel and fuel-related products, including asphalt and heavy fuel oils. The company manufactures, formulates, and markets a variety of specialty branded products to customers in various consumer-facing and industrial markets. Its segments include: Specialty Products and Solutions; Montana/Renewables; Performance Brands; and Corporate. The company generates maximum revenue from Fuels, asphalt and other by-products.

Executives

Daniel L Sheets	director	29400 LAKELAND BOULEVARD, WICKLIFFE OH 44092
Stephen P Mawer	director	2780 WATERFRONT PKWY E. DRIVE, SUITE 200, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46214
Jennifer Straumins	officer: President and COO	2780 WATERFRONT PKWY E. DRIVE, SUITE 200, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46214
Daniel J Sajkowski	director	5400 WEST 86TH STREET, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46268
John G. Boss	director	260 HUDSON RIVER ROAD, WATERFORD NY 12188
Ryan Willman	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	2780 WATERFRONT PKWY E. DR., STE. 200, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46214
Scott Obermeier	officer: EVP - Commercial	2780 WATERFRONT PARKWAY, E. DRIVE, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46214
James S Carter	director	2780 WATERFRONT PKWY. E. DRIVE, SUITE 200, INDIANPOLIS IN 46214
Louis Todd Borgmann	officer: SVP and Interim CFO	2780 WATERFRONT PARKWAY, E. DRIVE, SUITE 200, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46214
Karen A. Twitchell	director	9 COURTLANDT PLACE, HOUSTON TX 77006
Marc Lawn	officer: EVP - Performance Brands	2780 WATERFRONT PKWY E. DRIVE, SUITE 200, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46214
Paul C Raymond	director	HERCULES PLAZA, 1313 N MARKET STREET, WILMINGTON DE 19894
Vincent Donargo	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	ONE CELADON DRIVE, 9503 E. 33RD STREET, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46235
H. Keith Jennings	officer: Chief Financial Officer	2000 ST. JAMES PLACE, HOUSTON TX 77056
A Anderson William	officer: VP - Sales and Marketing	2780 WATERFRONT PARKWAY E. DRIVE,, SUITE 200, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46214