CLVT (Clarivate) Predictability Rank

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What is Clarivate Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Clarivate Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Clarivate Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Clarivate PLC (NYSE:CLVT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

16A:Germany 16A:Germany

Address

70 St. Mary Axe, London, GBR, EC3A 8BE

Website

https://www.clarivate.com

Clarivate is a data, information, and software workflow solutions company serving customers primarily in academia, government, law, life sciences, and healthcare. The company was formerly part of Thomson Reuters before being sold to private equity as an independent company in 2016. In 2019, Clarivate went public on the New York Stock Exchange. Around half of the company's revenue is generated in the Americas while Europe, Middle East, and Africa account for around a quarter.

Executives

Andrew Miles Snyder	director	111 WEST 57TH STREET, 9TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Bomba Jane L Okun	director	4TH FLOOR, ROPEMAKER PLACE, 25 ROPEMAKER STREET, LONDON X0 EC2Y 9LY
Saurabh Saha	director	C/O CENTESSA PHARMACEUTICALS PLC, 3RD FLOOR, 1 ASHLEY ROAD, ALTRINCHAM, CHESHIRE X0 WA14 2DT
Wendell E. Pritchett	director	TOLL BROTHERS, INC., 1140 VIRGINIA DRIVE, FORT WASHINGTON PA 19034
Michael J Angelakis	director	40 MORRIS AVENUE, BRYN MAWR PA 19010
Bar Veinstein	officer: President, A&G	70 ST. MARY AXE, LONDON X0 EC3 8BA
Melanie Margolin	officer: Chief Legal Officer	1000 SAGAMORE PARKWAY SOUTH, LAFAYETTE IN 47905
Henry Levy	officer: President, LS&H	70 ST. MARY AXE, LONDON X0 EC3 8BA
James Gordon Samson	officer: President, IP Group	FRIARS HOUSE, 160 BLACKFRIARS ROAD, LONDON X0 SE 1 8EZ
Jonathan Gear	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer-Elect	C/O IHS MARKIT LTD., 4TH FLOOR, ROPEMAKE, 25 ROPEMAKER STREET, LONDON X0 EC2Y 9LY
Michael M Easton	officer: Senior VP, Finance/CAO	4TH FLOOR ROPEMAKER PLACE, 25 ROPEMAKER STREET, LONDON X0 EC2Y 9LY
Stefano Maestri	officer: Chief Technology Officer	70 ST MARY AXE, LONDON X0 EC3 8BA
Jonathan Mark Collins	officer: Executive Vice President/CFO	50196 VENICE COURT, NORTHVILLE MI 48168
Mukhtar Ahmed	officer: President, Science Group	FRIARS HOUSE, 160 BLACKFRIARS ROAD, LONDON X0 SEL 8EZ
Heather Matzke-hamlin	officer: Acting Chief Acctg Officer	4TH FLOOR, ROPEMAKER PLACE, 25 ROPEMAKER STREET, LONDON X0 EC2Y 9LY