Compass Minerals International (Compass Minerals International) Predictability Rank

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What is Compass Minerals International Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Compass Minerals International Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Compass Minerals International (Compass Minerals International) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Metals & Mining » Compass Minerals International Inc (NYSE:CMP) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

CM8:Germany CM8:Germany

Address

9900 West 109th Street, Suite 100, Overland Park, KS, USA, 66210

Website

https://www.compassminerals.com

Compass Minerals currently produces two primary products: salt and specialty potash fertilizer. The company's main assets include rock salt mines in Ontario, Louisiana, and the United Kingdom and a salt brine operation at the Great Salt Lake in Utah that produces sulfate of potash and magnesium chloride. Compass' salt products are used for deicing and also by industrial and consumer end markets. The firm's sulfate of potash is used by growers of high-value crops that are sensitive to standard potash. Compass also sells fire retardants, with its magnesium chloride-based products used to combat forest fires.

Executives

Joseph E Reece	director	ONE VALERO WAY, BUILDING D, SUITE 200, SAN ANTONIO TX 78249
James D. Standen	officer: Interim CFO & Treasurer	9900 W. 109 STREET, SUITE 100, OVERLAND PARK KS 66210
Jill V Gardiner	director	C/O COMPASS MINERALS INTERNATIONAL, INC., 9900 W 109TH ST STE 100, OVERLAND PARK KS 66210
Shane T Wagnon	director	C/O COMPASS MINERALS INTERNATIONAL, INC., 9900 W 109TH ST STE 100, OVERLAND PARK KS 66210
Jon A Chisholm	director	C/O COMPASS MINERALS INTERNATIONAL, INC., 9900 W 109TH ST STE 100, OVERLAND PARK KS 66210
Km&t Investment Holdings, Llc	director, 10 percent owner	4111 E 37TH ST N, WICHITA KS 67220
Koch Industries Inc	director, 10 percent owner	4111 EAST 37TH STREET NORTH, WICHITA KS 67220
Melissa M Miller	director	201 ISABELLA STREET, PITTSBURGH PA 15212
Kevin S Crutchfield	director, officer: President and CEO	ONE ALPHA PLACE, P.O. BOX 2345, ABINGDON VA 24212
Mary L Frontczak	officer: Chief Legal Officer	9900 W 109TH STREET, SUITE 100, OVERLAND PARK KS 66210
Lori A Walker	director
Amy Yoder	director	C/O SPECTRUM BRANDS, INC., 6 CONCOURSE PARKWAY, SUITE 3300, ATLANTA GA 30328
Richard P Dealy	director	777 HIDDEN RIDGE, IRVING TX 75038
Edward C Dowling	director	19 NEDS POINT ROAD, MATTAPOISETT MA 02739
Teresa D Cook	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O COMPASS MINERALS INTERNATIONAL, INC., 9900 W 109TH ST STE 100, OVERLAND PARK KS 66210