CNS Pharmaceuticals (CNS Pharmaceuticals) Predictability Rank

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What is CNS Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

CNS Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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CNS Pharmaceuticals (CNS Pharmaceuticals) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » CNS Pharmaceuticals Inc (NAS:CNSP) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

2100 West Loop South, Suite 900, Houston, TX, USA, 77027

Website

https://www.cnspharma.com

CNS Pharmaceuticals Inc is a clinical-stage pharmaceutical company focused on the development of anticancer drug candidates for the treatment of primary and metastatic brain and central nervous system tumors. It is involved in the development of Berubicin, which is a therapy for the treatment of glioblastoma.

Executives

Christopher Downs	officer: Chief Financial Officer	31700 RESEARCH PARK DRIVE, MADISON HEIGHTS MI 48071
John M Climaco	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	PO BOX 326, PARK CITY UT 84060
Bettina M. Cockroft	director	C/O ANNEXON, INC., 180 KIMBALL WAY, SUITE 200, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Jerzy Gumulka	director	C/O CNS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 2100 WEST LOOP SOUTH STE 900, HOUSTON TX 77027
Waldemar Priebe	10 percent owner	2575 W. BELLFORT, SUITE 333, HOUSTON TX 77054
Faith L. Charles	director	ABEONA THERAPEUTICS INC., 1330 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS - FLOOR 33, NEW YORK NY 10019
Jeffry R. Keyes	director	13950 STOWE DRIVE, POWAY CA 92064-8803
Carl Anthony Evans	director	C/O CNS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 2100 WEST LOOP SOUTH STE 900, HOUSTON TX 77027
Andrzej Andraczke	director	C/O CNS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 2100 WEST LOOP SOUTH STE 900, HOUSTON TX 77027