CNTA (Centessa Pharmaceuticals) Predictability Rank

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What is Centessa Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Centessa Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Centessa Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Centessa Pharmaceuticals Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Centessa Pharmaceuticals PLC (NAS:CNTA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

0ACX:UK

Address

1 Ashley Road, 3rd Floor, Altrincham, Cheshire, GBR, WA14 2DT

Website

https://www.centessa.com

Centessa Pharmaceuticals PLC is a clinical-stage pharmaceutical company. The company's pipeline assets include: SerpinPC for Hemophilia A, B; LB101 for Solid Tumors; ORX750 for Narcolepsy Type 1 (NT1) and other sleep disorders; MGX292 Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension (PAH); and Undisclosed for Solid Tumors.

Executives

Gregory M Weinhoff	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O CENTESSA PHARMACEUTICALS PLC, 3RD FL., 1 ASHLEY RD, ALTRINCHAM, CHESHIRE X0 WA14 2DT
Saurabh Saha	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O CENTESSA PHARMACEUTICALS PLC, 3RD FLOOR, 1 ASHLEY ROAD, ALTRINCHAM, CHESHIRE X0 WA14 2DT
David M Chao	officer: Chief Administrative Officer	C/O CENTESSA PHARMACEUTICALS PLC, 3RD FLOOR, 1 ASHLEY ROAD, ALTRINCHAM, CHESHIRE X0 WA14 2DT
Iqbal J Hussain	officer: General Counsel	C/O CENTESSA PHARMACEUTICALS PLC, D. HODGKIN BLDG, BABRAHAM RSRCH CAMPUS, CAMBRIDGE X0 CB22 3FH
Karen M. Anderson	officer: Chief People Officer	C/O MIMECAST LTD., 191 SPRING STREET, LEXINGTON MA 02421
Tia L Bush	officer: Chief Quality Officer	C/O CENTESSA PHARMACEUTICALS PLC, 3RD FLOOR, 1 ASHLEY ROAD, ALTRINCHAM, CHESHIRE X0 WA14 2DT
Harris Rotman	officer: SVP Regulatory Affairs	C/O CENTESSA PHARMACEUTICALS PLC, 3RD FL., 1 ASHLEY RD, ALTRINCHAM, CHESHIRE X0 WA14 2DT
Antoine Yver	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O CENTESSA PHARMACEUTICALS PLC, 3RD FLOOR, 1 ASHLEY ROAD, ALTRINCHAM, CHESHIRE X0 WA14 2DT
David J Grainger	officer: Chief Innovation Officer	C/O CENTESSA PHARMACEUTICALS PLC, 3RD FL., 1 ASHLEY RD, ALTRINCHAM, CHESHIRE X0 WA14 2DT
Thomas Templeman	officer: Chief Technology Officer	C/O CENTESSA PHARMACEUTICALS PLC, 3RD FLOOR, 1 ASHLEY ROAD, ALTRINCHAM, CHESHIRE X0 WA14 2DT
Mathias Hukkelhoven	director	C/O CENTESSA PHARMACEUTICALS PLC, 3RD FL., 1 ASHLEY RD, ALTRINCHAM, CHESHIRE X0 WA14 2DT
Javad Shahidi	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O CENTESSA PHARMACEUTICALS PLC, 3RD FLOOR, 1 ASHLEY ROAD, ALTRINCHAM, CHESHIRE X0 WA14 2DT
Medicxi Ventures Management (jersey) Ltd	10 percent owner	C/O INTERTRUST FUND SERVICES (JERSEY), 44 ESPLANADE, ST. HELIER Y9 JE4 9WG
Rubertis Francesco De	director	C/O MEDICXI, COURS DE RIVE 10, GENEVA V8 CH-1204
Aaron Kantoff	director	C/O CENTESSA PHARMACEUTICALS PLC, D. HODGKIN BLDG, BABRAHAM RSRCH CAMPUS, CAMBRIDGE X0 CB22 3FH