CREG (Smart Powerr) Predictability Rank

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What is Smart Powerr Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Smart Powerr Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Smart Powerr Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Utilities » Utilities - Independent Power Producers » Smart Powerr Corp (NAS:CREG) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

CR9:Germany

Address

Rong Cheng Yun Gu Building Keji 3rd Road, 4th Floor, Tower C, Yanta District, Shaan Xi Province, Xi’an, CHN, 710075

Website

http://www.creg-cn.com

Smart Powerr Corp is a pioneer in waste energy recycling and a developer of energy efficiency solutions for various energy-intensive industries in China. It uses the Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) model to provide energy-saving and recovery facilities for multiple energy-intensive industries in China. Its waste energy recycling projects allow customers which use substantial amounts of electricity to recapture previously wasted pressure, heat, and gas from their manufacturing processes to generate electricity. The company currently offer waste energy recycling systems to companies for use in nonferrous metal plants. It constructs its projects at its customer's facility and the electricity produced is used on-site by the customer.

Executives

Zhongli Liu	director	4F, TOWER C RONG CHENG YUN GU BUILDING, KEJI 3RD RD, YANTA DISTRICT, XI-AN CITY, SHAAN XI PROXINCE F4 710075
Guohua Ku	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President/Chairman/CTO	SHAANXI BLOWER GROUP, DAI WANG BAN, LINTONG DISTRICT, XI'AN, SHAANXI PROVINCE F4 710600
Xiaoping Guo	director	12/F,TOWER A,CHANG AN INTERNATIONAL BLDG, NO. 88 NAN GUAN ZHENG JI, XI AN CITY F4 0000000
Binfeng Gu	officer: Chief Financial Officer	12/F,TOWER A,CHAN AN INTERNATIONAL BLDG, NO. 88 NAN GUAN ZHENG JIE, XI AN CITY, SHAAN XI PROVINCE F4 0000000000
Lulu Sun	director	12/F,TOWER A,CHANG AN INTERNATIONAL BLDG, NO. 88 NAN GUAN ZHENG JI, XI AN CITY F4 0000000
Yongjiang Shi	officer: CFO & Secretary & VP-Finance	12F TOWER A CHANG AN INTL BLDG, NO 88 NAN GUAN ZHENG XIE, XI AN CITY SHAN XI PROVINCE F4 710068
Cangsang Huang	director	6 YOUYI DONG LU,, HAN YUAN 4 LOU, XI'AN, SHAANXI PROVINCE F4 710054
Xiaoshan He	officer: Vice President	12F TOWER A CHANG AN INTL BLDG, NO 88 NAN GUAN ZHENG XIE, XI AN CITY SHAN XI PROVINCE F4 710068
Bohan Zhang	officer: Vice President-Accounting	12F TOWER A CHANG AN INTL BLDG, NO 88 NAN GUAN ZHENG XIE, XI AN CITY SHAN XI PROVINCE F4 710068
Geyun Wang	director	12/F,TOWER A,CHANG AN INTERNATIONAL BLDG, NO. 88 NAN GUAN ZHENG JI, XI AN CITY F4 0000000
Carlyle Group Inc.	10 percent owner	C/O THE CARLYLE GROUP, 1001 PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE, N.W., WASHINGTON DC 20004
Carlyle Group Management L.l.c.	10 percent owner	C/O THE CARLYLE GROUP L.P., 1001 PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE, NW, WASHINGTON DC 20004-2505
Tc Group Cayman Investment Holdings, L.p.	10 percent owner	C/O WALKERS CORPORATE SERVICES LIMITED, 190 ELGIN AVENUE, GEORGE TOWN, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-9001
Dbd Cayman Holdings, Ltd.	10 percent owner	C/O THE CARLYLE GROUP, SUITE 220 SOUTH, 1001 PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE, N.W., WASHINGTON DC 20004
Tcg Holdings Cayman Ii, L.p.	10 percent owner	THE CARLYLE GROUP, 1001 PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE, NW, WASHINGTON DC 20004