CRK (Comstock Resources) Predictability Rank

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What is Comstock Resources Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Comstock Resources Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Comstock Resources Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Comstock Resources Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Comstock Resources Inc (NYSE:CRK) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

CX91:Germany

Address

5300 Town and Country Boulevard, Suite 500, Comstock Tower, Frisco, TX, USA, 75034

Website

https://www.comstockresources.com

Comstock Resources Inc is an independent natural gas producer operating in the Haynesville shale, a natural gas basin located in North Louisiana and East Texas with superior economics given its geographical proximity to the Gulf Coast natural gas markets. The Company operates in one business segment, the exploration and production of North American natural gas and oil. It is engaged in the acquisition, development, production, and exploration of oil and natural gas. Its oil and gas operations are concentrated in Louisiana and Texas.

Executives

Elizabeth B Davis	director	5300 TOWN & COUNTRY BLVD., SUITE 500, FRISCO TX 75034
Arkoma Drilling, L.p.	10 percent owner	5950 BERKSHIRE LANE, SUITE 1400, DALLAS TX 75225
Blue Star Exploration Corp	10 percent owner	ONE COWBOYS WAY, FRISCO TX 75034
Roland O Burns	director, officer: Sr. VP & CFO	5300 TOWN AND COUNTY BLVD SUITE 500, FRISCO TX 75034
Brian Christopher Claunch	officer: VP of Financial Reporting	5300 TOWN AND COUNTRY BLVD, SUITE 500, FRISCO TX 75034
Patrick Mcgough	officer: Vice President of Operations	5300 TOWN AND COUNTRY BLVD, SUITE 500, FRISCO TX 75034
Jim L Turner	director	DEAN FOODS COMPANY, 2711 N. HASKELL AVE., SUITE 3400, DALLAS TX 75204
Morris E Foster	director	C/O EXXON MOBIL CORP, 5959 LAS COLINAS BLVD., IRVING TX 75039-2298
Newell Clifford Doyle Iii	officer: VP of Corporate Development	5300 TOWN & COUNTRY BLVD., SUITE 500, FRISCO TX 75034
M Jay Allison	director, officer: Chairman & CEO	5300 TOWN AND COUNTY BLVD SUITE 500, FRISCO TX 75034
Kanaman Lori Ann Arendt	officer: VP of Marketing	5300 TOWN & COUNTRY BLVD., SUITE 500, FRISCO TX 75034
Stuart D Porter	director, 10 percent owner	200 CLARENDON ST, 25TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
Russell W Romoser	officer: VP of Reservoir Engineering	5300 TOWN AND COUNTRY BLVD., SUITE 500, FRISCO TX 75034
Ronald Eugene Mills	officer: VP of Finance. and IR	5300 TOWN AND COUNTRY BLVD, SUITE 500, FRISCO TX 75034
Jordan Tatum Marye	director	700 LOUISIANA STREET, SUITE 3700, HOUSTON TX 77002