CTM (Castellum) Predictability Rank

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What is Castellum Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Castellum Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Castellum Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Castellum Inc (AMEX:CTM) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1934 Old Gallows Road, Suite 350, Vienna, VA, USA, 22182

Website

https://www.castellumus.com

Castellum Inc is engaged in providing information technology services. The company provides financial services, healthcare, and other users of large data applications with services that include intelligence analysis, software development, software engineering, program management, strategic and mission planning, information assurance, cybersecurity and policy support, data analytics, and MBSE. In addition to constantly innovating and enhancing organic capabilities, Castellum is acquiring technology companies in the areas of cybersecurity, information technology, electronic warfare, information warfare, and information operations with businesses in the defense, federal, civilian, and commercial markets.

Executives

Jay O Wright	director, officer: See Remarks	6701 DEMOCRACY BOULEVARD, SUITE 300, BETHESDA MD 20817
Mark C Fuller	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer, Chair	9722 MEYER POINT DRIVE, POTOMAC MD 20854
Charles Thomas Mcmillen	director	1103 SOUTH CAROLINA AVENUE, WASHINGTON DC 20003
Bernard S Champoux	director	1300 CRYSTAL DRIVE, PH1, ARLINGTON VA 22202
Mark S Alarie	director	8514 COUNTRY CLUB DRIVE, BETHESDA MD 20817
Patricia Frost	director	9 FERNGLEN DRIVE, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380
John Francis Campbell	director	8700 BITTERROOT CT., LORTON VA 22079
Emil Kaunitz	director	242 OVAL ROAD, MANASQUAN NJ 08736
David T Bell	officer: Chief Financial Officer	1016 GLYNDON ST. E, VIENNA VA 22180
Laurie M Buckhout	director, officer: Chief Revenue Officer	210 BLAIR COURT, EDENTON NC 27932
Glen R Ives	officer: Chief Operating Officer	34 PHILLIPS AVENUE, PONTE VEDRA BEACH FL 32082