Dare Bioscience (Dare Bioscience) Predictability Rank

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What is Dare Bioscience Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Dare Bioscience Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Dare Bioscience (Dare Bioscience) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Dare Bioscience Inc (NAS:DARE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

3655 Nobel Drive, Suite 260, San Diego, CA, USA, 92122

Website

https://www.darebioscience.com

Dare Bioscience Inc is a biopharmaceutical company committed to advancing innovative products for women's health. The company identifies, develops and brings to market a diverse portfolio of differentiated therapies that prioritize women's health and well-being, expand treatment options, and improve outcomes, primarily in the areas of contraception, fertility, and vaginal and sexual health. The company's first product, XACIATO is a single-dose vaginal gel prescription product for the treatment of bacterial vaginosis in females 12 years of age and older. The company's portfolio includes two product candidates in advanced clinical development namely, Ovaprene and Sildenafil Cream. It has one operating segment, women's health.

Executives

Sophia Nnenna Ononye-onyia	director	1270 AVE OF THE AMERICAS, 7TH FL - 1026, NEW YORK NY 10020
Sabrina Martucci Johnson	director, officer: Chef Executive Officer	11119 NORTH TORREY PINES ROAD, SUITE 200, LA JOLLA CA 92037
John A Fair	officer: Chief Strategy Officer	C/O DARE BIOSCIENCE, INC., 11119 NORTH TORREY PINES ROAD, SUITE 200, LA JOLLA CA 92037
Cheryl R Blanchard	director	C/O ZIMMER, INC., P.O. BOX 708, WARSAW IN 46580
Roger Hawley	director	3655 NOBEL DRIVE, SUITE 260, SAN DIEGO CA 92122
Gregory W Matz	director	1 WHITE OAK WAY, NOVATO CA 94949
Jessica D. Grossman	director	C/O DARE BIOSCIENCE, INC., 11119 NORTH TORREY PINES ROAD, SUITE 200, LA JOLLA CA 92037
Lisa Walters-hoffert	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O DARE BIOSCIENCE, INC., 10210 CAMPUS POINT DRIVE, SUITE 150, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Robin Joan Steele	director	3280 BAYSHORE BOULEVARD, BRISBANE CA 94005
Scott Eliasof	officer: SVP, Chief Scientific Officer	C/O CERULEAN PHARMA INC., 35 GATEHOUSE DRIVE, WALTHAM MA 02451
David R Walt	director	5200 ILLUMINA WAY, SAN DIEGO CA 92122
Adrian Senderowicz	officer: SVP, Chief Medical Officer	C/O PUMA BIOTECHNOLOGY, INC., 10880 WILSHIRE BOULEVARD, SUITE 2150, LOS ANGELES CA 90024
Stuart A Arbuckle	director	VERTEX PHARMACEUTICALS INCORPORATED, 130 WAVERLY ST., CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Alejandra Carvajal	officer: VP, General Counsel	C/O CERULEAN PHARMA INC., 840 MEMORIAL DRIVE, 5TH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
James E Oneill	officer: Principal Accounting Officer	15 GREENBRIAR CIRCLE, ANDOVER MA 01810