DFLI (Dragonfly Energy Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is Dragonfly Energy Holdings Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Dragonfly Energy Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Dragonfly Energy Holdings Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Products » Dragonfly Energy Holdings Corp (NAS:DFLI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

12915 Old Virgina Road, Reno, NV, USA, 89521

Website

https://www.dragonflyenergy.com

Dragonfly Energy Holdings Corp is a manufacturer of non-toxic deep cycle lithium-ion batteries that are designed to displace lead acid batteries in a number of different storage applications and end markets including RV, marine vessel, and solar and off-grid industries, with disruptive solid-state cell technology currently under development. The company's deep cycle lithium iron phosphate ("LFP") batteries provide numerous advantages compared to incumbent products, such as lead-acid batteries. LFP batteries are non-toxic and environmentally friendly, do not rely on scarce or controversial metals, and are a highly cost-effective storage solution.

Executives

Wade Seaburg	officer: Chief Revenue Officer	C/O DRAGONFLY ENERGY HOLDINGS CORP., 1190 TRADEMARK DRIVE #108, RENO NV 89521
Karina Edmonds	director	1190 TRADEMARK DRIVE, #108, RENO NV 89521
Luisa Ingargiola	director	4826 BLUE JAY CIRCLE, PALM HARBOR FL 34683
Brian James Nelson	director	C/O DRAGONFLY ENERGY CORP., 1190 TRADEMARK DR., SUITE 108, RENO NV 89521
Jonathan Bellows	director	C/O DRAGONFLY ENERGY CORP., 1190 TRADEMARK DR., SUITE 118, RENO NV 89521
Dynavolt Technology (hk) Ltd.	10 percent owner	A1601 COMPREHENSIVE BUSINESS BUILDING, MENGSHI INTERNATIONAL PLAZA,GUANGYI ROAD, CHENG HAI, GUANGDONG F4 00000
Tyler Bourns	officer: Senior VP of Marketing	1190 TRADEMARK DRIVE, #118, RENO NV 89521
Joan Buell	officer: Controller	1190 TRADEMARK DRIVE, #118, RENO NV 89521
Nicole Harvey	officer: Gen Counsel,Comp Off,Corp Sec	1190 TRADEMARK DRIVE, #118, RENO NV 89521
Sean Nichols	officer: Chief Operating Officer	1190 TRADEMARK DRIVE, #108, RENO NV 89521
Denis Phares	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President and CEO	1190 TRADEMARK DRIVE, #108, RENO NV 89521
John Marchetti	officer: Chief Financial Officer	3736 FALLON ROAD #428, DUBLIN CA 94568
Rick Parod	director	2707 N 108TH STREET STE102, OMAHA NE 68164
Roderick A. Hardamon	director	17 STATE STREET, 21ST FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10004
Hitesh Thakrar	director	17 STATE STREET, 21ST FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10004