What is Dermata Therapeutics Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Dermata Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Dermata Therapeutics (Dermata Therapeutics) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
3525 Del Mar Heights Road, Suite No. 322, San Diego, CA, USA, 92130
Dermata Therapeutics Inc is a clinical-stage medical dermatology company focused on identifying, developing, and commercializing pharmaceutical product candidates for the treatment of medical and aesthetic skin conditions and diseases. Its two product candidates, DMT310 and DMT410, incorporate its proprietary, multifaceted, Spongilla technology to topically treat a variety of dermatological conditions. Its Spongilla technology platform will enable to develop and formulate singular and combination products that are able to target topical delivery of chemical compounds into the dermis for maximum treatment effect for a variety of inflammatory skin diseases.
Executives
| Brittany Bradrick |
director |
C/O DERMATA THERAPEUTICS, INC., 3525 DEL MAR HEIGHTS RD., #322, SAN DIEGO CA 92130 |
| Gerald T Proehl |
10 percent owner, officer: Pres., CEO and Chairman |
|
| Van Hoose Kyri K. |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
C/O TURNING POINT THERAPEUTICS, INC., 10628 SCIENCE CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 200, SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
| Mary Fisher |
director |
C/O ACORDA THERAPEUTICS, INC., 15 SKYLINE DRIVE, HAWTHORNE NY 10532 |
| David F Hale |
director |
1042-B NORTH EL CAMINO REAL, SUITE 430, ENCINITAS CA 92024 |
| Steven J Mento |
director |
C/O SANGAMO BIOSCIENCES, INC., 501 CANAL BLVD SUITE A-100, RICHMOND CA 94804 |
| Wendell Wierenga |
director |
C/O CIPHERGEN BIOSYSTEMS INC, 6611 DUMBARTON CIRCLE, FREMONT CA 94555 |
| Kathleen D. Scott |
director |
C/O CONATUS PHARMACEUTICALS INC., 16745 WEST BERNARDO DRIVE, SUITE 200, SAN DIEGO CA 92127 |
| Thomas Insley |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
SKINMEDICA, INC., 5909 SEA LION PLACE, SUITE H, CARLSBAD CA 92010 |
| Bedoya-toro Munera Maria E |
officer: Senior VP |
10590 WEST OCEAN AIR DRIVE, SUITE 200, SAN DIEGO CA 92130 |
| Andrew Seth Sandler |
director |
1301 2ND AVE, SEATTLE WA 98101 |
| Christopher J. Nardo |
officer: Senior VP, Development |
C/O DERMATA THERAPEUTICS, INC., 3525 DEL MAR HEIGHTS RD., #322, SAN DIEGO CA 92130 |
| Proehl Investment Ventures Llc |
10 percent owner |
C/O DERMATA THERAPEUTICS, INC., 3525 DEL MAR HEIGHTS RD., #332, SAN DIEGO CA 92130 |
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