What is Digerati Technologies Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Digerati Technologies Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Digerati Technologies (Digerati Technologies) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
8023 Vantage Drive, Suite 660, San Antonio, TX, USA, 78230
Digerati Technologies Inc is a provider of cloud services specializing in Unified Communications as a Service (UCaaS) solutions. The company's product portfolio includes Internet-based telephony products and services delivered through its cloud application platform and session-based communication network and network services including internet broadband, fiber, mobile broadband and cloud WAN solutions (SD WAN). Its services provide enterprise-class, carrier-grade services to the small-to-medium-sized business at cost-effective monthly rates. Its UCaaS or cloud communication services include fully hosted IP/PBX, mobile applications, Voice over Internet Protocol transport, SIP trunking, and customized VoIP services all delivered Only in the Cloud.
Executives
| Post Road Special Opportunity Fund Ii Offshore Lp |
10 percent owner |
C/O POST ROAD GROUP LP, 2 LANDMARK SQUARE, SUITE 207, STAMFORD CT 06901 |
| Kevin C. Davis |
10 percent owner |
C/O POST ROAD GROUP LP, 2 LANDMARK SQUARE, SUITE 207, STAMFORD CT 06901 |
| Post Road Sof Gp Ii Llc |
10 percent owner |
2 LANDMARK SQUARE, SUITE 207, STAMFORD CT 06901 |
| Post Road Group Lp |
10 percent owner |
2 LANDMARK SQUARE, SUITE 207, STAMFORD CT 06901 |
| Michael Bogdan |
10 percent owner |
C/O POST ROAD GROUP LP, 2 LANDMARK SQUARE, SUITE 207, STAMFORD CT 06901 |
| Post Road Special Opportunity Fund Ii Lp |
10 percent owner |
2 LANDMARK SQUARE, SUITE 207, STAMFORD CT 06901 |
| Digerati Technologies, Inc. |
10 percent owner |
8023 VANTAGE DRIVE, SUITE 660, SAN ANTONIO TX 78230 |
| Craig Kendall Clement |
director, 10 percent owner |
626 JESSAMINE STREET, SAN ANTONIO TX 78209 |
| Flagship Oil & Gas Corp. |
10 percent owner |
626 JESSAMINE STREET, SAN ANTONIO TX 78209 |
| Max Polinsky |
director |
10715 GULFDALE STE 200, SAN ANTONIO TX 78216 |
| William E. Mcilwain |
other: Former Director |
3111 ROSEMARY PARK LANE, HOUSTON TX 77082 |
| Arthur L Smith |
officer: Chief Executive Officer |
8600 WURZBACH, SUITE 700W, SAN ANTONIO TX 78240 |
| James John Davis |
director |
13626 WINTER CREEK COURT, HOUSTON TX 77077 |
| Antonio Jr Estrada |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
1807 DEER RIDGE ST, SAN ANTONIO TX 78232 |
| John Howell |
director |
1950 CINNAMON TEAL DR., REDMOND OR 97756 |
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