DUOL (Duolingo) Predictability Rank

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What is Duolingo Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Duolingo Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Duolingo Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Duolingo Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Duolingo Inc (NAS:DUOL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

DUOL:Mexico

Address

5900 Penn Avenue, Pittsburgh, PA, USA, 15206

Website

https://www.duolingo.com

Duolingo Inc is a technology company that develops a mobile learning platform to learn languages and is the top-grossing app in the Education category on both Google Play and the Apple App Store. Its products are powered by sophisticated data analytics and artificial intelligence and delivered with class art, animation, and design to make it easier for learners to stay motivated master new material, and achieve their learning goals. Its solutions include the Duolingo Language Learning App, Super Duolingo, Duolingo English Test: AI-Driven Language Assessment, Duolingo For Schools, Duolingo ABC, and Duolingo Math. It has four predominant sources of revenue; time-based subscriptions, in-app advertising placement by third parties, and the Duolingo English Test, and In-App Purchases.

Executives

James H Shelton	director	469 FLORIDA AVENUE NW, WASHINGTON DC 20001
Ahn Luis Von	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President & CEO, Co-Founder	C/O ROOT, INC., 80 E. RICH STREET, SUITE 500, COLUMBUS OH 43215
Natalie Glance	officer: SVP, Engineering	C/O DUOLINGO, INC., 5900 PENN AVE., PITTSBURGH PA 15206
Severin Hacker	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Technology Officer,, other: Co-Founder	C/O DUOLINGO, INC., 5900 PENN AVE., PITTSBURGH PA 15206
Matthew Skaruppa	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O DUOLINGO, INC., 5900 PENN AVE., PITTSBURGH PA 15206
Stephen C. Chen	officer: General Counsel	C/O DUOLINGO, INC., 5900 PENN AVE., PITTSBURGH PA 15206
Robert Meese	officer: Chief Business Officer	C/O DUOLINGO, INC., 5900 PENN AVE., PITTSBURGH PA 15206
Sara Clemens	director	C/O PANDORA MEDIA, INC., 2101 WEBSTER STREET, #1650, OAKLAND CA 94612
Amy Bohutinsky	director	C/O ZILLOW GROUP, INC., 1301 SECOND AVENUE, FLOOR 31, SEATTLE WA 98101
Durable Capital Partners Lp	10 percent owner	4747 BETHESDA AVENUE, SUITE #1002, BETHESDA MD 20814
Gillian Munson	director	C/O XO GROUP INC., 195 BROADWAY, 25TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10007
Newview Capital Partners I, Llc	10 percent owner	1201 HOWARD AVENUE, SUITE 101, BURLINGAME CA 94010
Ravi Viswanathan	10 percent owner	1954 GREENSPRING DRIVE, SUITE 600, TIMONIUM MD 21093
Newview Capital Fund I, L.p.	10 percent owner	1290 HOWARD AVE, SUITE 319, BURLINGAME CA 94010
Kpcb Digital Growth Founders Fund, Llc	10 percent owner	2750 SAND HILL ROAD, MENLO PARK CA 94025