Emmaus Life Sciences (Emmaus Life Sciences) Predictability Rank

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What is Emmaus Life Sciences Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Emmaus Life Sciences Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Emmaus Life Sciences (Emmaus Life Sciences) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Emmaus Life Sciences Inc (OTCPK:EMMA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

21250 Hawthorne Boulevard, Suite 800, Torrance, CA, USA, 90503

Website

https://www.emmausmedical.com

Emmaus Life Sciences Inc is a biopharmaceutical company engaged in the discovery, development, and commercialization of new treatments and therapies primarily for rare and orphan diseases. The company's commercial product is Endari, an oral pharmaceutical grade L-glutamine treatment indicated to reduce acute complications of sickle cell disease in adult and pediatric patients five years of age and older. Its products in the pipeline include Diverticulosis and Cell Sheet Engineering.

Executives

Seah H. Lim	director	21250 HAWTHORNE BLVD., SUITE 800, TORRANCE CA 90503
Willis C Lee	director, officer: Vice Chairman & COO	20725 S. WESTERN AVE., SUITE 136, TORRANCE CA 90501
Yutaka Niihara	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman and CEO	20725 S. WESTERN BLVD., SUITE 136, TORRANCE CA 90501
Lori Teranishi	director	1000 BISHOP STREET, SUITE 500, HONOLULU HI 96813
Charles William Stark	officer: SVP, Clinical Development	21250 HAWTHORNE BOULEVARD, SUITE 800, TORRANCE CA 90503
George Sekulich	officer: CIO & SVP	21250 HAWTHORNE BOULEVARD, SUITE 800, TORRANCE CA 90503
Lui Alfred Fu Kong	director	21250 HAWTHORNE BOULEVARD, SUITE 800, TORRANCE CA 90503
Jane Pine Wood	director	956 MAIN STREET, DENNIS MA 02638
Wei Peu Zen	director	21250 HAWTHORNE BLVD., SUITE 800, TORRANCE CA 90503
Sherwood Joseph Charles Iii	officer: Chief Financial Officer	21250 HAWTHORNE BLVD., SUITE 800, TORRANCE CA 90503
Masaharu Osato	director	3440 LOMITA BOULEVARD, SUITE 320, TORRANCE CA 90505
Ian Harvey Zwicker	director	21250 HAWTHORNE BOULEVARD, SUITE 800, TORRANCE CA 90503
Lan T. Tran	officer: Chief Administrative Officer	20725 S. WESTERN AVE., SUITE 136, TORRANCE CA 90501
Robert Iv Dickey	director	320 WEST MERMAID LANE, PHILADELPHIA PA 19118
Yasushi Nagasaki	officer: Sr. VP Finance	20725 S. WESTERN AVE., SUITE 136, TORRANCE CA 90501