Enertopia (Enertopia) Predictability Rank

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What is Enertopia Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Enertopia Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Enertopia (Enertopia) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Metals & Mining » Enertopia Corp (OTCPK:ENRT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

ENRT:Canada

Address

1873 Spall Road, Suite 18, Kelowna, BC, CAN, V1Y 4R2

Website

https://www.enertopia.com

Enertopia Corp is engaged in the acquisition, development and exploration of natural resource properties. .The Company is engaged in exploring the West Tonopah Lithium Project ("West Tonopah") in the Smokey Valley, Nevada along with holding intellectual property & patents in the green technology space. The company has three reportable segments, Natural Resources, Technology and Corporate.

Executives

John Richard Nelson	director	402 ASTORIA CRESCENT SE, CALGARY A0 T2J 0Y5
Allan Horst Spissinger	officer: Chief Financial Officer	8131 198A STREET, LANGLEY A1 V2Y 1Y6
Robert Mcallister	director, officer: President	#203 - 688 LEQUIME ROAD, KELOWNA A1 V1W 1A4
Kristian Ross	director	826 LEON AVENUE, KELOWNA A1 V1Y 6J8
Baljinder Bhullar	officer: CFO	604 - 700 WEST PENDER, VANCOUVER A1 V6C 1G8
Kevin Michael Brown	director	2618 CAMPBELL ROAD, KELOWNA A1 V1Z1T2
Mathew T. Chadwick	director, officer: Sr. VP of Marijuana Operations	22308 DEWDNEY TRUNK RD., MAPLE RIDGE A1 V2X 3J2
Christopher Bunka	director, officer: Chairman and CEO	1924 BIRKDALE AVE, KELOWNA A1 V1P1R7
John Alan Thomas	director	5766 GOLDENROD CRESCENT, DELTA A1 V4L 2G6
Donald James Findlay	director	#30 NEW STREET SE, CALGARY A0 T2G 3X9
John Gregory Dawson	director	1810 RIDEAU AVENUE, COQUITLAM A1 V3J 3G8
Thomas James Ihrke	officer: Sr. VP, Business Development	38 KRIER LANE, MOUNT PLEASANT SC 29464
Mark E Snyder	officer: Chief Technical Officer	12900 BROOKPRINTER PL #200, POWAY CA 92064
Hugh Reid	director	1406-6TH STREET NW, CALGARY A0 T2M 3E6
James Letourneau	director	2609-12TH AVE. SW, CALGARY A0 T3C 0S4