Essex Property Trust (Essex Property Trust) Predictability Rank

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What is Essex Property Trust Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Essex Property Trust Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Essex Property Trust (Essex Property Trust) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » Essex Property Trust Inc (NYSE:ESS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

EXP:Germany E1SS34:Brazil

Address

1100 Park Place, Suite 200, San Mateo, CA, USA, 94403

Website

http://www.essex.com

Essex Property Trust owns a portfolio of 252 apartment communities with over 62,000 units and is developing another property with 264 units. The company focuses on owning large, high-quality properties on the West Coast in the urban and suburban submarkets of Southern California, Northern California, and Seattle.

Executives

Anne Morrison	officer: SVP - General Counsel	C/O ESSEX PROPERTY TRUST, INC., 1100 PARK PLACE, SUITE 200, SAN MATEO CA 94403
Amal M Johnson	director	C/O MELLANOX TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 350 OAKMEAD PARKWAY, SUITE 100, SUNNYVALE CA 94085
Angela L. Kleiman	officer: Executive Vice President & CFO	1100 PARK PLACE, SUITE 200, SAN MATEO CA 94403
Michael J Schall	director, officer: Sr. Exec. Vice President & CFO	C/O ESSEX PROPERTY TRUST, 1100 PARK PLACE, SUITE 200, SAN MATEO CA 94403
Adam W Berry	officer: Co-Chief Investment Officer	C/O ESSEX PROPERTY TRUST, INC., 1100 PARK PLACE, SUITE 200, SAN MATEO CA 94403
Barbara Pak	officer: Executive Vice President & CFO	C/O ESSEX PROPERTY TRUST, INC., 1100 PARK PLACE, SUITE 200, SAN MATEO CA 94403
John Farias	officer: Group Vice President and CAO	C/O ESSEX PROPERTY TRUST, INC, 1100 PARK PLACE, SUITE 200, SAN MATEO CA 94403
Lyons Irving F Iii	director	C/O ESSEX PROPERTY TRUST, INC., 925 E. MEADOW DRIVE, PALO ALTO CA 94303
Thomas E Robinson	director	309 GARRISON FOREST ROAD, OWNINGS MILLS MD 21117
Byron A Scordelis	director
Maria R Hawthorne	director	701 WESTERN AVENUE, GLENDALE CA 91201
John F. Burkart	officer: Executive Vice President	C/O ESSEX PROPERTY TRUST INC., 1100 PARK PLACE, SUITE 200, SAN MATEO CA 94403
Craig K Zimmerman	officer: Executive Vice President	C/O ESSEX PROPERTY TRUST, 1100 PARK PLACE, SUITE 200, SAN MATEO CA 94403
Janice L. Sears	director	1100 PARK PLACE, SUITE 200, SAN MATEO CA 94403
John D Eudy	officer: Executive Vice President	C/O ESSEX PROPERTY TRUST, 1100 PARK PLACE, SUITE 200, SAN MATEO CA 94403