EVH (Evolent Health) Predictability Rank

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What is Evolent Health Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Evolent Health Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Evolent Health Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Healthcare Providers & Services » Evolent Health Inc (NYSE:EVH) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

9EH:Germany

Address

1812 N. Moore Street, Suite 1705, Arlington, VA, USA, 22209

Website

https://www.evolenthealth.com

Evolent Health Inc is engaged in healthcare delivery and payment. The company supports health systems and physician organizations in their migration toward value-based care and population health management. It provides specialty care management services in oncology, cardiology, musculoskeletal markets and holistic total cost of care management along with an integrated platform for health plan administration and value-based business infrastructure under one go to market package. The primary solutions provided by the company include specialty care management services, total cost of care management, and administrative services.

Executives

Richard M Jelinek	director	40 W 47TH STREET, FLOOR 33, NEW YORK NY 10035
Kim Keck	director	30 W. MONROE STREET, SUITE 1200, CHICAGO IL 60603
Peter J Grua	director	C/O HLM VENTURE PARTNERS, 800 SOUTH STREET, SUITE 620, WALTHAM MA 02453
Daniel Joseph Mccarthy	officer: PRESIDENT	800 N GLEBE ROAD, SUITE 500, ARLINGTON VA 22203
Craig A. Barbarosh	director	3525 PIEDMONT RD., NE, BUILDING 6, SUITE 700, ATLANTA GA 30305
Seth Blackley	officer: President	800 N. GLEBE ROAD, SUITE 500, ARLINGTON VA 22203
Diane Holder	director	800 GLEBE ROAD, SUITE 500, ARLINGTON VA 22203
John Paul Johnson	officer: Chief Financial Officer	800 NORTH GLEBE ROAD, SUITE 500, ARLINGTON VA 22203
Emily Ann Rafferty	officer: Chief Operating Officer	800 N. GLEBE ROAD, SUITE 500, ARLINGTON VA 22203
Jonathan Weinberg	officer: General Counsel	800 N. GLEBE ROAD, SUITE 500, ARLINGTON VA 22203
Toyin Ajayi	director	800 NORTH GLEBE ROAD, SUITE 500, ARLINGTON VA 22203
Cheryl Scott	director	800 N. GLEBE ROAD, SUITE 500, ARLINGTON VA 22203
Mary Bridget Duffy	director	C/O VOCERA COMMUNICATIONS, INC., 525 RACE STREET, SAN JOSE CA 95126
Frank J Williams	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	800 NORTH GLEBE ROAD, SUITE 500, ARLINGTON VA 22203
Steve Tutewohl	officer: Chief Operating Officer	800 NORTH GLEBE ROAD, SUITE 500, ARLINGTON VA 22203