EYE (National Vision Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is National Vision Holdings Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

National Vision Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

National Vision Holdings Predictability Rank Related Terms

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National Vision Holdings Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Retail - Cyclical » National Vision Holdings Inc (NAS:EYE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

7NV:Germany

Address

2435 Commerce Avenue, Building 2200, Duluth, GA, USA, 30096

Website

https://www.nationalvision.com

National Vision Holdings Inc is an optical retailer in the U.S. Its product portfolio includes eyeglasses and sunglasses, contact lenses, accessories, and other products. The company has two operating segments; Owned and Host segment includes company-owned brands America's Best and Eyeglass World, In America's Best stores, vision care services are provided by optometrists or by independent professional corporations and Host operating consist of Military and Fred Meyer which provide eye exams by independent optometrists, and the Legacy segment manages the operations of, and supplies inventory and lab processing services to Legacy retail Vision Centers. It earns a majority of its revenue from the Owned and Host segment.

Executives

Joseph Vandette	officer: SVP, Chief Marketing Officer	C/O NATIONAL VISION HOLDINGS, INC., 2435 COMMERCE AVE., BUILDING 2200, DULUTH GA 30096
Patrick R. Moore	officer: SVP, Chief Financial Officer	C/O NATIONAL VISION HOLDINGS, INC., 2435 COMMERCE AVENUE, BLDG. 2200, DULUTH GA 30096
D Randolph Peeler	director, 10 percent owner	CASELLA WASTE SYSTEMS INC, 25 GREENS HILL LANE PO BOX 866, RUTLAND VT 05701
Virginia A Hepner	director	415 EAST PACES FERRY ROAD, SUITE 200, ATLANTA GA 30305
L Reade Fahs	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer
Thomas V Taylor	director	2233 LAKE PARK DRIVE, STE. 400, SMYRNA GA 30080
Ravi Acharya	officer: SVP, Chief Technology Officer	C/O NATIONAL VISION HOLDINGS, INC., 2435 COMMERCE AVE., BUILDING 2200, DULUTH GA 30096
Jared Brandman	officer: SVP, GC and Secretary	C/O NATIONAL VISION HOLDINGS, INC., 2435 COMMERCE AVENUE BLDG. 2200, DULUTH GA 30096-4980
David M Tehle	director	100 MISSION RIDGE, GOODLETTSVILLE TN 37072
Melissa Rasmussen	officer: SVP, Chief Accounting Officer	NATIONAL VISION HOLDINGS, INC., 2435 COMMERCE AVENUE BLDG 2200, DULUTH GA 30095
Roger F. Francis	officer: SVP, Chief Stores Officer	C/O NATIONAL VISION HOLDINGS, INC., 2435 COMMERCE AVE., BUILDING 2200, DULUTH GA 30096
Jose Armario	director	MCDONALD'S CORPORATION, 2915 JORIE BOULEVARD, OAK BROOK IL 60523
Susan S Johnson	director	303 PEACHTREE STREET, NE, ATLANTA GA 30308
Naomi Kelman	director	C/O NATIONAL VISION HOLDINGS, INC., 2435 COMMERCE AVE., BUILDING 2200, DULUTH GA 30096
Joan Blackwood	officer: SVP, Chief Marketing Officer	C/O NATIONAL VISION HOLDINGS, INC., 2435 COMMERCE AVE., BUILDING 2200, DULUTH GA 30096