FA (First Advantage) Predictability Rank

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What is First Advantage Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

First Advantage Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

First Advantage Predictability Rank Related Terms

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First Advantage Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Business Services » First Advantage Corp (NAS:FA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

0MS:Germany

Address

1 Concourse Parkway NE, Suite 200, Atlanta, GA, USA, 30328

Website

https://www.fadv.com

First Advantage Corp is a provider of employment background screening and verification solutions. Its reportable segments are First Advantage Americas, First Advantage International, and Sterling. Maximum revenue is generated from the First Advantage Americas segment, which performs various background checks and compliance services across all phases of the workforce lifecycle, from pre-onboarding services to post-onboarding and ongoing monitoring services, covering employees, contractors, contingent workers, tenants, and drivers. The company delivers solutions across multiple industry verticals in the United States, Canada, and Latin America. Geographically, it derives key revenue from the United States.

Executives

Steven Irwin Marks	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O FIRST ADVANTAGE CORPORATION, 1 CONCOURSE PARKWAY NE, SUITE 200, ATLANTA GA 30328
Bret T Jardine	officer: See Remarks	100 CARILLON PARKWAY, ST. PETERSBURG FL 33716
Joseph K. Jaeger	officer: President, Americas	C/O FIRST ADVANTAGE CORPORATION, 1 CONCOURSE PARKWAY NE, SUITE 200, ATLANTA GA 30328
James Lindsey Clark	director	1819 DANFORTH DRIVE, MARIETTA GA 30062
Silver Lake Group, L.l.c.	director, 10 percent owner	2775 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 100, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Joelle M Smith	officer: See Remarks	C/O FIRST ADVANTAGE CORPORATION, 1 CONCOURSE PARKWAY NE, SUITE 200, ATLANTA GA 30328
Bridgett R Price	director	C/O FIRST ADVANTAGE CORPORATION, 1 CONCOURSE PARKWAY NE, SUITE 200, ATLANTA GA 30328
Slta V (gp), L.l.c.	director, 10 percent owner	C/O SILVER LAKE, 2775 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 100, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Scott Staples	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O FIRST ADVANTAGE CORPORATION, 1 CONCOURSE PARKWAY NE, SUITE 200, ATLANTA GA 30328
David L Gamsey	officer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer
Slp Fastball Aggregator, L.p.	director, 10 percent owner	C/O SILVER LAKE, 2776 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 100, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Slp V Aggregator Gp, L.l.c.	director, 10 percent owner	C/O SILVER LAKE, 2775 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 100, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Judith Sim	director	C/O FORTINET, INC., 899 KIFER ROAD, SUNNYVALE CA 94086
Bianca Stoica	director	C/O SILVER LAKE, 2776 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 100, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Joseph Osnoss	director	C/O SILVER LAKE EUROPE LLP, BROADBENT HOUSE, 65 GROSVENOR STREET, LONDON X0 W1K 3JH