FENC (Fennec Pharmaceuticals) Predictability Rank

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What is Fennec Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Fennec Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Fennec Pharmaceuticals Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Fennec Pharmaceuticals Inc (NAS:FENC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

RV41:Germany FRX:Canada

Address

68 TW Alexander Drive, PO Box 13628, Research Triangle Park, NC, USA, 27709

Website

https://www.fennecpharma.com

Fennec Pharmaceuticals Inc is a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company. Its product candidate is PEDMARK which is sodium thiosulfate in a novel formulation for the prevention of cisplatin-induced hearing loss, or ototoxicity in children. The company principally operates in the United States.

Executives

Rosty Raykov	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O ADHEREX TECHNOLOGIES INC., 4620 CREEKSTONE DRIVE, SUITE 200, DURHAM NC 27703
Chris A Rallis	director	C/O TENAX THERAPEUTICS, INC., ONE COPLEY PARKWAY, SUITE 490, MORRISVILLE NC 27560
Adrian Haigh	director	83 ANGLESSA ROAD, BALLSBRIDGE, DUBLIN L2 D04H27
Robert Andrade	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O ADHEREX TECHNOLOGIES INC., 4620 CREEKSTONE DRIVE, SUITE 200, DURHAM NC 27703
Marco Maria Brughera	director	VIALE STEFINI 14, MILANO L6 00000
Khalid Islam	director	C/O IMMUNOMEDICS, INC., 300 THE AMERICAN ROAD, MORRIS PLAINS NJ 07950
Shubh Goel	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	1100 MAXWELL, #522, HOBOKEN NJ 07030
Southpoint Capital Advisors Lp	10 percent owner	1114 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 22ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036
Spa Essetifin	10 percent owner	VIA SUDAFRICA 20, ROME L6 00144
Jodi A Cook	director	PO BOX 816, NEWTOWN PA 08540
Manchester Management Pr, Llc	10 percent owner	3 WEST HILL PLACE, BOSTON MA 02114
Francesca Cavazza	10 percent owner	VIA PONTINA KM 30,400, POMEZIA (ROME) L6 00040
Paolo Cavazza	10 percent owner	VIA TESSERETE, 10, LUGANO V8 V8
Silvia Cavazza	10 percent owner	VIA PONTINA KM 30,400, POMEZIA (ROME) L6 00040
Enrico Cavazza	10 percent owner	VIA PONTINA KM 30,400, POMEZIA (ROME) L6 00040