GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Fennec Pharmaceuticals Inc (NAS:FENC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

FENC (Fennec Pharmaceuticals) Predictability Rank


View and export this data going back to 2002. Start your Free Trial

What is Fennec Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Fennec Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Fennec Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Fennec Pharmaceuticals's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Fennec Pharmaceuticals Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
68 TW Alexander Drive, PO Box 13628, Research Triangle Park, NC, USA, 27709
Fennec Pharmaceuticals Inc is a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company. Its product candidate is PEDMARK which is sodium thiosulfate in a novel formulation for the prevention of cisplatin-induced hearing loss, or ototoxicity in children. The company principally operates in the United States.
Executives
Rosty Raykov director, officer: Chief Executive Officer C/O ADHEREX TECHNOLOGIES INC., 4620 CREEKSTONE DRIVE, SUITE 200, DURHAM NC 27703
Chris A Rallis director C/O TENAX THERAPEUTICS, INC., ONE COPLEY PARKWAY, SUITE 490, MORRISVILLE NC 27560
Adrian Haigh director 83 ANGLESSA ROAD, BALLSBRIDGE, DUBLIN L2 D04H27
Robert Andrade officer: Chief Financial Officer C/O ADHEREX TECHNOLOGIES INC., 4620 CREEKSTONE DRIVE, SUITE 200, DURHAM NC 27703
Marco Maria Brughera director VIALE STEFINI 14, MILANO L6 00000
Khalid Islam director C/O IMMUNOMEDICS, INC., 300 THE AMERICAN ROAD, MORRIS PLAINS NJ 07950
Shubh Goel officer: Chief Commercial Officer 1100 MAXWELL, #522, HOBOKEN NJ 07030
Southpoint Capital Advisors Lp 10 percent owner 1114 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 22ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036
Spa Essetifin 10 percent owner VIA SUDAFRICA 20, ROME L6 00144
Jodi A Cook director PO BOX 816, NEWTOWN PA 08540
Manchester Management Pr, Llc 10 percent owner 3 WEST HILL PLACE, BOSTON MA 02114
Francesca Cavazza 10 percent owner VIA PONTINA KM 30,400, POMEZIA (ROME) L6 00040
Paolo Cavazza 10 percent owner VIA TESSERETE, 10, LUGANO V8 V8
Silvia Cavazza 10 percent owner VIA PONTINA KM 30,400, POMEZIA (ROME) L6 00040
Enrico Cavazza 10 percent owner VIA PONTINA KM 30,400, POMEZIA (ROME) L6 00040