FLL (Full House Resorts) Predictability Rank

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What is Full House Resorts Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Full House Resorts Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Full House Resorts Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Full House Resorts Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Travel & Leisure » Full House Resorts Inc (NAS:FLL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

F4L:Germany

Address

1980 Festival Plaza Drive, Suite 680, One Summerlin, Las Vegas, NV, USA, 89135

Website

https://www.fullhouseresorts.com

Full House Resorts Inc owns, operates, develops, manages, and invests in casinos and related hospitality and entertainment facilities. It offers facilities related to gaming, hotel, dining, entertainment, retail, and other amenities. The group's reportable segments are Midwest & South, West, and Contracted Sports Wagering, It generates the majority of its revenue from the Midwest & South segment which includes Silver Slipper Casino and Hotel, Rising Star Casino Resort, and American Place. The west segment includes Grand Lodge, Stockman's Casino, Bronco Billy's Casino and Hotel, and Chamonix Casino Hotel. The Contracted Sports Wagering segment comprises on-site and online sports wagering skins.

Executives

Elaine Guidroz	officer: Secretary	C/O FULL HOUSE RESORTS, INC., 777 RISING STAR DRIVE, RISING SUN IN 47040
Lewis A. Fanger	officer: Sr. VP, CFO and Treasurer	C/O FULL HOUSE RESORTS, INC., 4670 S. FORT APACHE ROAD, SUITE 190, LAS VEGAS NV 89147
Daniel R Lee	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O CREATIVE CASINOS LLC, 10801 W CHARLESTON BLVD #420, LAS VEGAS NV 89135
John Ferrucci	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O FULL HOUSE RESORTS, INC., 1980 FESTIVAL PLAZA DRIVE, SUITE 680, LAS VEGAS NV 89135
Eric J Green	director	C/O FULL HOUSE RESORTS, INC., 1980 FESTIVAL PLAZA DRIVE, SUITE 680, LAS VEGAS NV 89135
Kathleen M Caracciolo	director	5922 CLOVERLEAF DRIVE, MAYS LANDING NJ 08330
Michael A. Hartmeier	director	C/O DIAMONDROCK HOSPITALITY COMPANY, 2 BETHESDA METRO CENTER, SUITE 1400, BETHESDA MD 20814
Carl G Braunlich	director	4670 SOUTH FORT APACHE ROAD, SUITE 190, LAS VEGAS NV 89147
Kenneth Robert Adams	director	210 MARSH AVE SUITE 103, RENO NV 89509
Lynn M Handler	director	C/O FULL HOUSE RESORTS, INC., 1980 FESTIVAL PLAZA DRIVE, SUITE 680, LAS VEGAS NV 89135
Michael P Shaunnessy	director	50 BRIAR HOLLOW LANE, STE 500W, HOUSTON TX 77027
Bradley M Tirpak	director	50 ORCHARD ST., NEW YORK NY 10002
Craig W Thomas	director	2100 CRESCENT AVENUE, CHARLOTTE NC 28207
Ellis Landau	director	CO PINNACLE ENTERTAINMENT INC, 8918 SPANISH RIDGE AVENUE, LAS VEGAS NV 89148
Garrett W.h. Baird	director	C/O ELASTIC N.V., 800 WEST EL CAMINO REAL SUITE 350, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94040