Serabi Gold (FRA:B9O2) Predictability Rank


FRA:B9O2 Serabi Gold PLC FRA:B9O2
84 GF Score
Price €2.82
GF Value €2.23
Valuation Modestly Overvalued
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What is Serabi Gold Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Serabi Gold Predictability Rank Related Terms

FRA:B9O2
84GF Score
Serabi Gold PLC FRA:B9O2
Predictability Rank is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
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Serabi Gold Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Is Serabi Gold (FRA:B9O2) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Serabi Gold stock appears to be overvalued. The current stock price of €2.82 is trading 26.5% above its estimated GF Value™ of €2.23. GuruFocus considers Serabi Gold to be Modestly Overvalued.

Key valuation signals for FRA:B9O2:

  • Predictability Rank:
  • GF Value™: €2.23 vs. price of €2.82 (26.5% above fair value)
  • GF Score™: 84/100

No single metric tells the full story. See the FRA:B9O2 stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.

Serabi Gold Business Description

Other Exchanges SRBIF:USASRB:UKSBI:Canada
Address Cobham Park Road, The Long Barn, Downside, Surrey, GBR, KT11 3NE
Serabi Gold PLC is a holding and gold sales company and a provider of support and management services to its operating subsidiaries. Together with its subsidiaries it is involved in the development of gold and other metals mining projects in Brazil and the operation of the Palito gold mine in the Tapajos region of Brazil. The company has only one primary business activity namely the conduct of gold mining and exploration in Brazil. It has two separate segments, Brazil and UK. Copper/ gold concentrate is produced in Brazil and sales routed through the UK, whilst sales of gold bullion are conducted directly from Brazil.
84GF Score

Get the complete analysis for FRA:B9O2

Predictability Rank is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

€2.82
Price
€2.23
GF Value