Furniture Brands International, (FRA:FBN1) Predictability Rank

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What is Furniture Brands International, Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Furniture Brands International, Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Furniture Brands International, Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Furniture Brands International, (FRA:FBN1) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances » Furniture Brands International, Inc. (FRA:FBN1) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Website

http://www.furniturebrands.com

Furniture Brands International, Inc., is a Delaware corporation, which was organized in 1921 as a holding company. The Company is engaged in designing, manufacturing, sourcing and retailing of home furnishings. It markets products through a wide range of channels, including its own Thomasville retail stores and through interior designers, multi-line/independent retailers and mass merchant stores. Its portfolio includes Thomasville, Broyhill, Lane, Drexel Heritage, Henredon, Pearson, Hickory Chair, Lane Venture, Maitland-Smith and La Barge. Through these brands, the Company offers case goods, consisting of bedroom, dining room, and living room wood furniture; stationary upholstery products, consisting of sofas, loveseats, sectionals, and chairs; motion upholstered furniture, consisting of recliners and sleep sofas; occasional furniture, consisting of wood, metal and glass tables, accent pieces, home entertainment centers, and home office furniture; and decorative accessories and accent pieces. The Company's brands are featured in every price and product category in the residential furniture industry. Each of its brands targets specific customers in relation to style and price point. The raw materials used in manufacturing its products include lumber, veneers, plywood, fiberboard, particleboard, steel, paper, hardware, adhesives, finishing materials, glass, mirrored glass, fabrics, leathers, metals, stone, synthetics and upholstered filling material. The Company's products compete against domestic manufacturers, importers, and foreign manufacturers entering the United States market; as well as increased direct importing by some larger retailers. Its competitors include: Ashley Furniture Industries, Inc.; La-Z-Boy Incorporated; Ethan Allen Interiors Inc., and many other home furnishings retailers and manufacturers. The elements of competition include price, style, quality, service, brand and marketing.

Furniture Brands International, (FRA:FBN1) Headlines

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