Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Baltic Trading Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
Predictables
Non-Predictable
All stocks
Total Number of stocks
570
1833
2403
Total Lost Money
61
830
891
Total Lost More Than 50%
18
412
430
Total Lost More Than 90%
4
86
90
Average Gain
260.6%
100.0%
138.1%
Median Gain
150.0%
13.0%
39.0%
Maximum Gain
2852.0%
11483.0%
11483.0%
Maximum Loss
-100.0%
-100.0%
-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain
12.7%
6.7%
8.4%
Annualized Median Gain
8.9%
1.1%
3.1%
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Baltic Trading's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.
Baltic Trading Ltd is a New York City-based company incorporated in October 2009 in the Marshall Islands to conduct shipping business focused on the drybulk industry spot market. The Company's fleet currently consists of four Capesize vessels, four Supramax vessels and five Handysize vessels with an aggregate carrying capacity of approximately 1,095,000 deadweight tons. Its fleet contains five groups of sister ships, which are vessels of virtually identical sizes and specifications. It operates a fleet of drybulk ships that transports iron ore, coal, grain, steel products and other drybulk cargoes along worldwide shipping routes. It plans to operate all of its vessels in the spot market, on spot market-related time charters, or in vessel pools trading in the spot market. Its customers include national, regional and international companies, including Cargill International S.A. ('Cargill'), Klaveness Chartering ('Klaveness'), Resource Marine PTE Ltd. (part of the Macquarie group of Companies) ('Resource Marine'), and Swissmarine Services S.A. ('Swissmarine'). The Company competes with other owners of drybulk carriers in the Capesize, Supramax and Handysize class sectors, some of whom may also charter its vessels as customers. The Company is subject to international conventions and treaties, national, state and local laws and regulations in force in the countries in which its vessels may operate or are atregistered relating to safety and health and environmental protection including the storage, handling, emission, transportation and discharge of hazardous and non-hazardous merials, and the remediation of contamination and liability for damage to natural resources.
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