FUN (Six Flags Entertainment) Predictability Rank

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What is Six Flags Entertainment Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Six Flags Entertainment Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Six Flags Entertainment Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Travel & Leisure » Six Flags Entertainment Corp (NYSE:FUN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

6FE0:Germany 6FE0:Germany

Address

8701 Red Oak Boulevard, Charlotte, NC, USA, 28217

Website

https://www.sixflags.com

Six Flags Entertainment Corp is North America's regional amusement resort operator with approximately 27 amusement parks, around 15 separately gated water parks, and nine resort properties across the U.S., Canada, and Mexico. It provides coasters, themed rides, thrilling water parks, resorts, and a portfolio of beloved intellectual properties such as Looney Tunes, DC Comics, and PEANUTS.

Executives

Michelle M Frymire	director	C/O SPIRIT REALTY CAPITAL, INC., 2727 N. HARWOOD STREET, SUITE 300, DALLAS TX 75201
Monica Sauls	officer: Senior VP CHRO	ONE CEDAR POINT DRIVE, SANDUSKY OH 44870
Nina Barton	director	ONE CEDAR POINT DRIVE, SANDUSKY OH 44870
Jennifer Mason	director	C/O CEDAR FAIR, 8701 RED OAK BLVD., CHARLOTTE NC 28217
Daniel J Hanrahan	director	ROYAL CARIBBEAN CRUISES LTD, 1050 CARIBBEAN WAY, MIAMI FL 33132
Brian Nurse	officer: Exec VP, Chief Legal Officer	ONE CEDAR POINT DRIVE, SANDUSKY OH 44870
Matthew A Ouimet	officer: President	ONE CEDAR POINT DR., SANDUSKY OH 44870
Louis Carr	director	ONE CEDAR POINT DRIVE, SANDUSKY OH 44870
Carlos Ruisanchez	director	C/O PINNACLE ENTERTAINMENT INC, 3980 HOWARD HUGHES PARKWAY, LAS VEGAS NV 89169
Tim Fisher	officer: Chief Operating Officer	ONE CEDAR POINT DRIVE, SANDUSKY OH 44870
Craig Heckman	officer: SVP, Human Resources	ONE CEDAR POINT DRIVE, SANDUSKY OH 44870
Scott John M Iii	director	ONE CEDAR POINT DR, SANDUSKY OH 44870
Brian C Witherow	officer: V.P. & Corporate Controller	ONE CEDAR POINT DRIVE, SANDUSKY OH 44870
Richard Zimmerman	officer: VP & GM - Great America	ONE CEDAR POINT DRIVE, SANDUSKY OH 44870
Milkie Duffield	officer: V.P. & General Counsel	ONE CEDAR POINT DR, SANDUSKY OH 44870