What is Six Flags Entertainment Predictability Rank?
1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Six Flags Entertainment Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Six Flags Entertainment Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
8701 Red Oak Boulevard, Charlotte, NC, USA, 28217
Six Flags Entertainment Corp is North America's regional amusement resort operator with approximately 27 amusement parks, around 15 separately gated water parks, and nine resort properties across the U.S., Canada, and Mexico. It provides coasters, themed rides, thrilling water parks, resorts, and a portfolio of beloved intellectual properties such as Looney Tunes, DC Comics, and PEANUTS.
Executives
| Michelle M Frymire |
director |
C/O SPIRIT REALTY CAPITAL, INC., 2727 N. HARWOOD STREET, SUITE 300, DALLAS TX 75201 |
| Monica Sauls |
officer: Senior VP CHRO |
ONE CEDAR POINT DRIVE, SANDUSKY OH 44870 |
| Nina Barton |
director |
ONE CEDAR POINT DRIVE, SANDUSKY OH 44870 |
| Jennifer Mason |
director |
C/O CEDAR FAIR, 8701 RED OAK BLVD., CHARLOTTE NC 28217 |
| Daniel J Hanrahan |
director |
ROYAL CARIBBEAN CRUISES LTD, 1050 CARIBBEAN WAY, MIAMI FL 33132 |
| Brian Nurse |
officer: Exec VP, Chief Legal Officer |
ONE CEDAR POINT DRIVE, SANDUSKY OH 44870 |
| Matthew A Ouimet |
officer: President |
ONE CEDAR POINT DR., SANDUSKY OH 44870 |
| Louis Carr |
director |
ONE CEDAR POINT DRIVE, SANDUSKY OH 44870 |
| Carlos Ruisanchez |
director |
C/O PINNACLE ENTERTAINMENT INC, 3980 HOWARD HUGHES PARKWAY, LAS VEGAS NV 89169 |
| Tim Fisher |
officer: Chief Operating Officer |
ONE CEDAR POINT DRIVE, SANDUSKY OH 44870 |
| Craig Heckman |
officer: SVP, Human Resources |
ONE CEDAR POINT DRIVE, SANDUSKY OH 44870 |
| Scott John M Iii |
director |
ONE CEDAR POINT DR, SANDUSKY OH 44870 |
| Brian C Witherow |
officer: V.P. & Corporate Controller |
ONE CEDAR POINT DRIVE, SANDUSKY OH 44870 |
| Richard Zimmerman |
officer: VP & GM - Great America |
ONE CEDAR POINT DRIVE, SANDUSKY OH 44870 |
| Milkie Duffield |
officer: V.P. & General Counsel |
ONE CEDAR POINT DR, SANDUSKY OH 44870 |
Quick Browse
Personalize
Premium Gurus 
Create New Portfolio
Portfolio Contest
FUN has been successfully added to your