GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Travel & Leisure » Six Flags Entertainment Corp (NYSE:FUN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

FUN (Six Flags Entertainment) Predictability Rank


View and export this data going back to 1987. Start your Free Trial

What is Six Flags Entertainment Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Six Flags Entertainment Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Six Flags Entertainment Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Six Flags Entertainment's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Six Flags Entertainment Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
8701 Red Oak Boulevard, Charlotte, NC, USA, 28217
Six Flags Entertainment Corp is North America's regional amusement resort operator with approximately 27 amusement parks, around 15 separately gated water parks, and nine resort properties across the U.S., Canada, and Mexico. It provides coasters, themed rides, thrilling water parks, resorts, and a portfolio of beloved intellectual properties such as Looney Tunes, DC Comics, and PEANUTS.
Executives
Michelle M Frymire director C/O SPIRIT REALTY CAPITAL, INC., 2727 N. HARWOOD STREET, SUITE 300, DALLAS TX 75201
Monica Sauls officer: Senior VP CHRO ONE CEDAR POINT DRIVE, SANDUSKY OH 44870
Nina Barton director ONE CEDAR POINT DRIVE, SANDUSKY OH 44870
Jennifer Mason director C/O CEDAR FAIR, 8701 RED OAK BLVD., CHARLOTTE NC 28217
Daniel J Hanrahan director ROYAL CARIBBEAN CRUISES LTD, 1050 CARIBBEAN WAY, MIAMI FL 33132
Brian Nurse officer: Exec VP, Chief Legal Officer ONE CEDAR POINT DRIVE, SANDUSKY OH 44870
Matthew A Ouimet officer: President ONE CEDAR POINT DR., SANDUSKY OH 44870
Louis Carr director ONE CEDAR POINT DRIVE, SANDUSKY OH 44870
Carlos Ruisanchez director C/O PINNACLE ENTERTAINMENT INC, 3980 HOWARD HUGHES PARKWAY, LAS VEGAS NV 89169
Tim Fisher officer: Chief Operating Officer ONE CEDAR POINT DRIVE, SANDUSKY OH 44870
Craig Heckman officer: SVP, Human Resources ONE CEDAR POINT DRIVE, SANDUSKY OH 44870
Scott John M Iii director ONE CEDAR POINT DR, SANDUSKY OH 44870
Brian C Witherow officer: V.P. & Corporate Controller ONE CEDAR POINT DRIVE, SANDUSKY OH 44870
Richard Zimmerman officer: VP & GM - Great America ONE CEDAR POINT DRIVE, SANDUSKY OH 44870
Milkie Duffield officer: V.P. & General Counsel ONE CEDAR POINT DR, SANDUSKY OH 44870