What is Global Net Lease Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Global Net Lease Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Global Net Lease Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
650 Fifth Avenue, 30th Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10019
Global Net Lease Inc is a real estate investment trust that manages a globally diversified portfolio of commercial real estate properties. The company is engaged in the ownership, management, operating, lease, acquisition, investment, and sale of the portfolio assets. Its segments include Industrial & Distribution; Multi-Tenant Retail; Single-Tenant Retail; and office. The company derives maximum revenue from industrial and distribution segment. The company geographically operates in Unites States, United Kingdom, Canada and Europe.
Executives
| Nicholas S Schorsch |
10 percent owner |
|
| Jesse Charles Galloway |
officer: See Remarks |
650 FIFTH AVENUE, 30TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019 |
| Ar Global Investments, Llc |
10 percent owner |
222 BELLEVUE AVENUE, NEWPORT RI 02840 |
| Bellevue Capital Partners, Llc |
10 percent owner |
222 BELLEVUE AVENUE, NEWPORT RI 02840 |
| Lisa Kabnick |
director |
405 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Leslie D Michelson |
director |
PRIVATE HEALTH MANAGEMENT, 9200 SUNSET BLVD, SUITE 110, LOS ANGELES CA 90069 |
| Stanley R Perla |
director |
C/O LEXINGTON CORPORATE PROPERTIES TRUST, 355 LEXINGOTN AVE 14TH FL, NEW YORK NY 10017 |
| Christopher J. Masterson |
officer: CFO, Secretary and Treasurer |
405 PARK AVE, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| James Larry Nelson |
director, officer: CEO and President |
2747 PARADISE ROAD, PH2804, LAS VEGAS NV 89109 |
| Weil Edward M Jr. |
director |
C/O AMERICAN REALTY CAPITAL 405 PARK AVE, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Edward G Rendell |
director |
405 PARK AVENUE, 15TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Abby M. Wenzel |
director |
C/O AMERICAN REALTY CAPITAL PROPERTIES, 405 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Sue Perrotty Portia |
director |
405 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Lee M Elman |
director |
405 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| M. Therese Antone |
director |
650 FIFTH AVENUE, 30TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019 |
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