Gentex (Gentex) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 1990. Start your Free Trial

What is Gentex Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Gentex Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Gentex Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Gentex's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Gentex (Gentex) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Vehicles & Parts » Gentex Corp (NAS:GNTX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

GTX:Germany

Address

600 North Centennial Street, Zeeland, MI, USA, 49464

Website

https://www.gentex.com

Gentex was founded in 1974 to produce smoke-detection equipment. The company sold its first glare-control interior mirror in 1982 and its first model using electrochromic technology in 1987. Automotive revenue is about 98% of total revenue. The company is constantly developing new applications for the technology to remain on top. Sales in 2022 totaled about $1.9 billion with 44.2 million mirrors shipped. The unit mix breaks out as 65% interior and 35% exterior, versus about 32% exterior in 2020. The company is based in Zeeland, Michigan.

Executives

Anderson Joseph B Jr	director	MERITOR, INC., 2135 WEST MAPLE ROAD, TROY MI 48084-7186
Kathleen Starkoff	director	4304 SUNBURY ROAD, GALENA OH 43021-9318
Gary F Goode	director	2801 EAST BELTLINE, N.E., GRAND RAPIDS MI 49525
James A Hollars	director	23880 MESSINA COURT, BONITA SPRINGS FL 34134
Richard O Schaum	director	388 WARREN COURT, BIRMINGHAM MI 48009
Neil Boehm	officer: Chief Technology Officer	600 N. CENTENNIAL STREET, ZEELAND MI 49464
Scott P Ryan	officer: General Counsel	7592 KIRKWOOD TRAIL SE, ALTO MI 49302
Steven R Downing	officer: Chief Financial Officer	14814 CREEK EDGE DRIVE, HOLLAND MI 49424
James H Wallace	director	2625 WYNDBEND BLVD, POWELL OH 43065
John A Mulder	director	16680 LYONHURST CIRCLE, NORTHVILLE MI 48167
Ling Zang	director	6291 SHENANDOAH PARK AVE, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84121
Matthew Chiodo	officer: Vice President of Sales	600 N. CENTENNIAL STREET, ZEELAND MI 49464
Kevin C Nash	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	2608 104TH AVENUE, ZEELAND MI 49464
Frederick A Sotok	director
Brian C Walker	director