Gogo (GOGO) Predictability Rank

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What is Gogo Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Gogo Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Gogo Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Telecommunication Services » Gogo Inc (NAS:GOGO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

0IYQ:UK G0G:Germany

Address

105 Edgeview Drive, Suite 300, Broomfield, CO, USA, 80021

Website

https://www.gogoair.com

Gogo Inc is a broadband connectivity service for the business aviation market. It provides a customizable suite of smart cabin systems for integrated connectivity, inflight entertainment, and voice solutions. Its business segment includes Gogo BA and Satcom Direct. It generates two types of revenue: service revenue consists of monthly subscription and usage fees paid by aircraft owners and operators for telecommunication, data, and in-flight entertainment services. and equipment revenue consists of proceeds from the sale of ATG and narrowband satellite connectivity equipment and is recognized when control of the equipment is transferred to OEMs and dealers, which generally occurs when the equipment is shipped.

Executives

Charles C Townsend	director	1250 N ARLINGTON HEIGHTS RD, STE 500, ITASCA IL 60143
Oakleigh Thorne	director, 10 percent owner
Harris N Williams	director	1250 N ARLINGTON HEIGHTS RD, STE 500, ITASCA IL 60143
Karen Jackson	officer: SVP, Human Resources	1250 N. ARLINGTON HEIGHTS ROAD, STE 500, ITASCA IL 60143
Crystal L Gordon	officer: EVP, Gen Counsel and Secy	945 BUNKER HILL, SUITE 650, HOUSTON TX 77024
Michael Abad-santos	director	C/O GOGO INC., 105 EDGEVIEW DR., SUITE 300, BROOMFIELD CO 80021
Leigh Goldfine	officer: VP, Controller and CAO	C/O GOGO INC., 105 EDGEVIEW DR., SUITE 300, BROOMFIELD CO 80021
Jessica Betjemann	officer: SVP, Finance, Treasurer & CAO	C/O GOGO INC., 111 N. CANAL ST, SUITE 1400, CHICAGO IL 60606
Marguerite M Elias	officer: Exec VP, Gen Counsel and Sec	1250 N ARLINGTON HEIGHTS RD, STE 500, ITASCA IL 60143
Michael P. Bayer	officer: SVP, Controller & CAO	1250 N. ARLINGTON HEIGHTS ROAD, STE 500, ITASCA IL 60143
Robert L Crandall	director	C/O AMR CORP/AMERICAN AIRLINES INC, 5215 NORTH O'CONNOR BLVD, IRVING TX 75039
Silver (xii) Holdings, Llc	director, 10 percent owner	300 NORTH LASALLE STREET, SUITE 5600, CHICAGO IL 60654
Mark M. Anderson	director	300 NORTH LASALLE STREET, SUITE 5600, CHICAGO IL 60654
Mudrick Distressed Opportunity Specialty Fund, L.p.	10 percent owner	527 MADISON AVENUE, 6TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Mudrick Distressed Opportunity Fund Global, Lp	10 percent owner	527 MADISON AVENUE, 6TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022