GTLB (GitLab) Predictability Rank

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What is GitLab Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

GitLab Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

GitLab Predictability Rank Related Terms

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GitLab Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » GitLab Inc (NAS:GTLB) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

GTLB:Mexico 1GTLB:Italy 8K2:Germany

Address

268 Bush Street, Suite 350, San Francisco, CA, USA, 94104-3503

Website

https://www.about.gitlab.com

GitLab Inc operates on an all-remote model. GitLab, a complete DevSecOps platform delivered as a single application. It operates in two competitive landscapes: DevOps point solutions and DevOps platforms. In terms of point solutions that are stitched together, GitLab's offering is substantially different in that it is one platform, one codebase, one interface, and a unified data model that spans the entire DevSecOps lifecycle. DevOps platforms, the principal competitor is Microsoft Corporation following their acquisition of GitHub. GitLab is offered on both self-managed and software-as-a-service (SaaS) models. It is located in the United States, Europe, and Asia Pacific. It focused on accelerating innovation and broadening the distribution of its platform to companies across the world.

Executives

Karen Blasing	director	4420 ROSEWOOD DRIVE, SUITE 500, PLEASANTON CA 94588
Sytse Sijbrandij	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O GITLAB, INC., 268 BUSH STREET, #350, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Brian G Robins	officer: Chief Financial Officer	21355 RIDGETOP CIRCLE, ATTN: GENERAL COUNSEL, DULLES VA 20166
Matthew Jacobson	director, 10 percent owner	C/O DATADOG, INC., 45TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10001
Susan L Bostrom	director
Robin Schulman	officer: Chief Legal Officer & Corp Sec	C/O NEW RELIC, INC., 188 SPEAR STREET, STE. 1200, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Erin Mannix	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	801 LAKEVIEW DRIVE, BLUE BELL PA 19422
Merline Saintil	director	10 SOUTH FIRST AVENUE, WALLA WALLA WA 99362
Sundeep Bedi	director	C/O GITLAB, INC., 268 BUSH STREET, #350, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Mark Porter	director	C/O MONGODB, INC., 1633 BROADWAY, 38TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Iconiq Strategic Partners Iv, L.p.	10 percent owner	394 PACIFIC AVENUE, SECOND FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Iconiq Strategic Partners Iii, L.p.	10 percent owner	394 PACIFIC AVENUE, 2ND FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Christopher Lee Weber	officer: Chief Revenue Officer	C/O UIPATH, INC., 452 5TH AVENUE, 22ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10018
Michael Eugene Mcbride	officer: Chief Revenue Officer	C/O GITLAB, INC., 268 BUSH STREET, #350, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Dale R Brown	officer: Principal Accounting Officer	1060 E ARQUES AVE, SUNNYVALE CA 94085