Blackhawk Network Holdings (Blackhawk Network Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is Blackhawk Network Holdings Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Blackhawk Network Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Blackhawk Network Holdings (Blackhawk Network Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Credit Services » Blackhawk Network Holdings Inc (NAS:HAWK) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Website

http://www.blackhawknetwork.com

Blackhawk Network Holdings Inc is a United States-based prepaid payment network. It utilizes proprietary technology to offer to consumers and businesses a broad selection of prepaid cards in physical and electronic forms, as well as complementary prepaid products, payment services, and incentives solutions. Blackhawk's product offerings include single-use gift cards, loyalty, incentive and reward products and services; prepaid telecom products and prepaid financial services products, including general purpose reloadable (GPR) cards, and its reload network. The company distributes these prepaid products across multiple high-traffic channels such as grocery, convenience, specialty and online retailers in the Americas, Europe, Africa, Australia and Asia.

Executives

Arun Sarin	director	C/O SAFEWAY INC., 5918 STONERIDGE MALL ROAD, PLEASANTON CA 94588
Hoskins Roche L Talbott	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O BLACKHAWK NETWORK HOLDINGS, INC., 6220 STONERIDGE MALL ROAD, PLEASANTON CA 94588
Robert B Henske	director	2535 GARCIA AVE, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043
Paul Hazen	director	P O BOX 7070, CARMEL CA 93921
Robert L Edwards	director	C/O IMATION CORP, 1 IMATION PL, OAKDALE MN 55128
Mohan S Gyani	director	7277 164TH AVE NE, BLDG1, REDMOND WA 98052
Jane J. Thompson	director	628 GREEN VALLEY ROAD, SUITE 500, GREENSBORO NC 27408
Steven A Burd	director	C/O SAFEWAY INC, 5918 STONERIDGE MALL ROAD, PLEASANTON CA 94588
Thomas Barnds	director	C/O ACCEL-KKR CAPITAL PARTNERS III, LP, 2500 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 300, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Jeffrey H Fox	director	ONE ALLIED DRIVE, LITTLE ROCK AR 72202
Probst Lawrence F Iii	director	209 REDWOOD SHORES PARKWAY, REDWOOD CITY CA 94065
Juli Spottiswood	officer: SVP/GM Engagement Solutions	3250 BRIARPARK DRIVE, SUITE 400, HOUSTON TX 77042