Hepion Pharmaceuticals (Hepion Pharmaceuticals) Predictability Rank

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What is Hepion Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Hepion Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Hepion Pharmaceuticals (Hepion Pharmaceuticals) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Hepion Pharmaceuticals Inc (NAS:HEPA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

399 Thornall Street, First Floor, Edison, NJ, USA, 08837

Website

https://www.hepionpharma.com

Hepion Pharmaceuticals Inc is a biopharmaceutical company that focuses primarily on the development of drug therapy for the treatment of chronic liver diseases. This therapeutic approach targets fibrosis and hepatocellular carcinoma associated with non-alcoholic steatohepatitis, viral hepatitis, and other liver diseases. Its cyclophilin inhibitor, Rencofilstat, is being developed to offer benefits to address these multiple complex pathologies. Rencofilstat is a pan cyclophilin inhibitor that targets multiple pathologic pathways involved in the progression of liver disease.

Executives

Peter Wijngaard	director	8 SYLVAN WAY, PARSIPPANY NJ 07054
Robert T Foster	officer: Chief Scientific Officer	C/O CONTRAVIR PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 399 THORNALL STREET, FIRST FLOOR, EDISON NJ 08837
Kaouthar Lbiati	director	399 THORNALL STREET, FIRST FLOOR, EDISON NJ 08837
Anand Reddi	director	399 THORNALL STREET, FIRST FLOOR, EDISON NJ 08837
John T Cavan	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O STEMLINE THERAPEUTICS, INC., 750 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 6TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
John P Brancaccio	director	C/O TAMIR BIOTECHNOLOGY, INC., 11 DEER PARK DRIVE, SUITE 204, MONMOUTH JUNCTION NJ 08852
Gary S Jacob	director, officer: CEO and President
Donald E Garlikov	10 percent owner	41 S. HIGH STREET, SUITE 3400, COLUMBUS OH 43215
Tamar D Howson	director
Thomas Phd Adams	director
Gabriel Cerrone	10 percent owner	VIA SANT' ANDREA 18, MILAN L6 20121
John Z Sullivan-bolyai	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O CONTRAVIR PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 399 THORNALL STREET, 1ST FLOOR, EDISON NJ 08837
James Sapirstein	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	1517 SAN JACINTO, HOUSTON TX 77002
Arnold Lippa	director	C/O AURORA CAPITAL, LLC, 17 PARK AVENUE, #201, NEW YORK NY 10016
William Karl Hornung	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O CONTRAVIR PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 420 LEXINGTON AVE., SUITE 300, NEW YORK NY 10170