Tian An Medicare (HKSE:00383) Predictability Rank

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What is Tian An Medicare Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Tian An Medicare Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Tian An Medicare Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Tian An Medicare Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Healthcare Providers & Services » Tian An Medicare Ltd (HKSE:00383) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Traded in Other Exchanges

COLRF:USA SMI:Germany SMI:Germany

Address

333 Lockhart Road, 47th Floor, United Asia Finance Centre, Wanchai, Hong Kong, HKG

Website

http://www.tiananmedicare.com.hk

Tian An Medicare Ltd is an investment holding company and operator of integrated healthcare and eldercare services. Its main focus is on the investment, management and operations of healthcare and eldercare businesses, and the related property investment and development, and comprehensive spectrum of healthcare and eldercare services to customers in the People's Republic of China ("PRC") and Asia Pacific. The Group is also involved in businesses of securities trading and investment, and provision of financial services.

Executives

Allied Group Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Lee Seng Hui	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Tian An China Investments Company Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Lee Su Hwei	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Lee Seng Huang	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
China Spirit Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Vigor Online Offshore Limited	2101 Beneficial owner
Chong Sok Un	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Resuccess Investments Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Tsinghua Tongfang Co., Ltd.	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Cool Clouds Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Ming Tai Ji Tuan You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Ding Moyan	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Greatime Management Corp.	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
China Minsheng Investment Group Corp., Ltd.	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you

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