Lam Soon (Hong Kong) (HKSE:00411) Predictability Rank


HKSE:00411 Lam Soon (Hong Kong) Ltd HKSE:00411
68 GF Score
Price HK$11.00
GF Value HK$8.33
Valuation Significantly Overvalued
! 2 Warning Signs
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What is Lam Soon (Hong Kong) Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Lam Soon (Hong Kong) Predictability Rank Related Terms

HKSE:00411
68GF Score
Lam Soon (Hong Kong) Ltd HKSE:00411
Predictability Rank is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
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Lam Soon (Hong Kong) Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Is Lam Soon (Hong Kong) (HKSE:00411) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Lam Soon (Hong Kong) stock appears to be overvalued. The current stock price of HK$11.00 is trading 32.1% above its estimated GF Value™ of HK$8.33. GuruFocus considers Lam Soon (Hong Kong) to be Significantly Overvalued.

Key valuation signals for HKSE:00411:

  • Predictability Rank:
  • GF Value™: HK$8.33 vs. price of HK$11.00 (32.1% above fair value)
  • GF Score™: 68/100 with 2 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the HKSE:00411 stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.

Lam Soon (Hong Kong) Business Description

Address 21 Dai Fu Street, Lam Soon Building, Tai Po Industrial Estate, Tai Po, New Territories, Hong Kong, HKG
Lam Soon (Hong Kong) Ltd is an investment holding company engaged in the manufacturing of food and detergent products. The company's business segments are based on its activities and include Food and Home Care. The Food segment involves the manufacturing and distribution of food products such as flour, edible oils, and vegetable fats. The Home Care segment covers the manufacturing and distribution of household cleaning products, including liquid dishwashing detergent, laundry powder, liquid laundry detergent, fabric softener, floor cleaner, and industrial marble cleanser. The majority of its revenue is generated from the Food segment activities. It operates in Hong Kong and international markets, with the majority of its revenue derived from Mainland China.
68GF Score

Get the complete analysis for HKSE:00411

Predictability Rank is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

HK$11.00
Price
HK$8.33
GF Value