Wai Kee Holdings (HKSE:00610) Predictability Rank

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What is Wai Kee Holdings Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Wai Kee Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Wai Kee Holdings (HKSE:00610) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Construction » Wai Kee Holdings Ltd (HKSE:00610) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

98 Granville Road, Unit 1103, 11th Floor, East Ocean Centre, Tsimshatsui, Kowloon, HKG

Website

http://www.waikee.com

Wai Kee Holdings Ltd is engaged in construction and material businesses. It operates through four business segments. The Construction, sewage treatment and steam fuel segment, which is the key revenue generating segment, is engaged in the construction of civil engineering and building projects and operation of sewage treatment plant and steam fuel plant. Construction Materials segment is engaged in the production and sales of concrete and asphalt. Quarrying segment is engaged in the production and sales of quarry products. Property development and investment, toll road, investment and asset management segment is engaged in the strategic investment in Road King, an associate of the Group. Its prime geographical areas of operation includes Hong Kong and China.

Executives

Zen Wei Pao, William	2101 Beneficial owner
Zen Wei Peu	2402 A person making a loan or providing security
Cheng Yu Tung Family (holdings Ii) Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Cheng Yu Tung Family (holdings) Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Chow Tai Fook (holding) Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Chow Tai Fook Capital Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Chow Tai Fook Enterprises Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Century Acquisition Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Nws Holdings Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
New World Development Company Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you

Wai Kee Holdings (HKSE:00610) Headlines

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