Da Yu Financial Holdings (HKSE:01073) Predictability Rank

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What is Da Yu Financial Holdings Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Da Yu Financial Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Da Yu Financial Holdings (HKSE:01073) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Capital Markets » Da Yu Financial Holdings Ltd (HKSE:01073) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

138 Gloucester Road, Room 1801, 18th Floor, Allied Kajima Building, Wanchai, Hong Kong, HKG

Website

http://www.chinagrotech.com

Da Yu Financial Holdings Ltd is an investment holding company and is engaged in providing financial advisory services. It operates in four segments. The corporate finance advisory services include services incidental to financial advisory, compliance advisory services, placing agency and underwriting services, investment business, and others. The Asset management services include investment advisory services and sundry income derived from the provision of the services. The Securities and related services include the provision of securities broking, underwriting, and placing of securities and investment in securities. The money lending business includes the provision of loan financing and related services. The group mainly has operations located in Hong Kong.

Executives

Victory Gain Ventures Limited	2101 Beneficial owner
Asm Connaught House General Partner V Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Asm Connaught House (master) Fund V Lp	2101 Beneficial owner
Chan Kin	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Argyle Street Management Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Xu Haohao	2101 Beneficial owner
Lee Su Hwei	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Lee Seng Huang	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Beyond Global Enterprises Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
First Steamship Company Limited	2101 Beneficial owner
Argyle Street Management Holdings Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Lee Seng Hui	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Allied Group Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Cheung Kit Shan Susanna	2202 Interest of your spouse
Lee Wa Lun Warren	2101 Beneficial owner

Da Yu Financial Holdings (HKSE:01073) Headlines

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