Red Star Macalline Group (HKSE:01528) Predictability Rank

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What is Red Star Macalline Group Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Red Star Macalline Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Red Star Macalline Group (HKSE:01528) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » Real Estate » Red Star Macalline Group Corp Ltd (HKSE:01528) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

601828:China

Address

No. 2/5, Lane 1466, Shenchang Road, Minhang District, Shanghai, CHN

Website

https://www.chinaredstar.com

Red Star Macalline Group Corp Ltd operates home improvement and furnishings shopping malls in China. It has various segments.Owned/Leased Portfolio Shopping Malls segment, which is the key revenue driver, leases floor areas to the tenants and provides management support to them. Managed Shopping Malls segment provides initiation, consultation, and management services to its partners and construction contractors to develop and manage the shopping malls under its own brand. The Construction and design segment provides building installation and decorating services in shopping malls. Sales of merchandise and related services segment include retail sales of home furnishing merchandise and providing related decorating services. All of its revenues are derived from the PRC.

Executives

Taobao China Holding Limited	2101 Beneficial owner
Taobao Holding Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Alibaba Investment Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
New Retail Strategic Opportunities Fund Gp, L.p.	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
New Retail Strategic Opportunities Fund, L.p.	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
New Retail Strategic Opportunities Gp Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
New Retail Strategic Opportunities Investments 4 Limited	2101 Beneficial owner
Alibaba Group Holding Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Wong Man Li	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Hui Wai Hing	2202 Interest of your spouse
Man Wah Investments Limited	2101 Beneficial owner
Ubs Trustees (b.v.i.) Limited	2301 Trustee
Xi Xi Development Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
New Fortune Star Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Wong Luen Hei	2307 Founder of a discretionary trust who can infl

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