China ITS (Holdings) Co (HKSE:01900) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2010. Start your Free Trial

What is China ITS (Holdings) Co Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

China ITS (Holdings) Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

China ITS (Holdings) Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of China ITS (Holdings) Co's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

China ITS (Holdings) Co (HKSE:01900) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » China ITS (Holdings) Co Ltd (HKSE:01900) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Jiuxianqiao North Road, Building 204, No. A10, Chaoyang District, Beijing, CHN, 100015

Website

http://www.its.cn

China ITS (Holdings) Co Ltd and its subsidiaries are mainly a provider of products, specialized solutions, and services related to infrastructure technology in the railway and electric power sectors. The operating business segments are Railway business which is engaged in the provision of products and specialized solutions mainly including railway communication products and energy-base products. The Electric power business segment is engaged in the provision of products and specialized solutions related to electric power equipment for customers in the electric power infrastructure construction area. Geographically, the company operates in China and Myanmar.

Executives

Jiang Hailin	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Liao Jie	2101 Beneficial owner
China Its Co., Ltd.	2101 Beneficial owner
Central Huijin Investment Ltd.	2106 Person having a security interest in shares
China Construction Bank Corporation	2106 Person having a security interest in shares
Joyful Business Holdings Limited	2101 Beneficial owner
Best Partners Development Limited	2501 Other
Credit Suisse Trust Limited	2301 Trustee
Fino Investments Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Tesco Investments Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you

China ITS (Holdings) Co (HKSE:01900) Headlines

No Headlines