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Wise Living Technology Co (HKSE:02481) Predictability Rank


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What is Wise Living Technology Co Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Wise Living Technology Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Wise Living Technology Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Wise Living Technology Co (HKSE:02481) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Utilities » Utilities - Independent Power Producers » Wise Living Technology Co Ltd (HKSE:02481) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
HKSE:01853 HKSE:01281 HKSE:01671 SHSE:600900 HKSE:01816 BOM:533096 SHSE:600011 VST LSE:CNA BOM:539254 HKSE:00006 NRG HKSE:00836 BOM:500400 SHSE:600674 SHSE:600023 NSE:JSWENERGY SHSE:601991 BUE:PAMP DFM:EMPOWER
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
No. 15 Shuangliang Road, Ligang Street, Room 202, 2nd Floor, Jiangsu, Jiangyin, CHN
Website
http://www.hjkj.cn
Wise Living Technology Co Ltd is a cross-provincial heat service provider mainly operating in the Three North Region. It is principally engaged in the provision of heat services to residential and non-residential heat service customers under concession rights. In addition to its provision of heat services, which is considered as a public utility business, the company also provides heat-related; engineering construction services; and EMC services.
Executives
Galaxy Way Development Limited 2101 Beneficial owner
Gofintech Innovation Limited 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Jiang Gang International Investment Company Limited 2101 Beneficial owner
Zhou Xiaoping 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Jiang Yin Guo You Zi Ben Kong Gu Ji Tuan You Xian Gong Si 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Jiang Yin Guo You Zi Ben Kong Gu Ji Tuan Jin Rong Tou Zi You Xian Gong Si 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Xiang Gang Xing Yi Tou Zi Guan Li You Xian Gong Si 2101 Beneficial owner

Wise Living Technology Co (HKSE:02481) Headlines

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