Sichuan Kelun-Biotech Biopharmaceutical Co (HKSE:06990) Predictability Rank

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What is Sichuan Kelun-Biotech Biopharmaceutical Co Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Sichuan Kelun-Biotech Biopharmaceutical Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Sichuan Kelun-Biotech Biopharmaceutical Co (HKSE:06990) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Sichuan Kelun-Biotech Biopharmaceutical Co Ltd (HKSE:06990) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

No. 666 Xinhua Avenue, Chengdu Cross-Strait Science and Technology Industry Development Park, Wenjiang, Sichuan, Chengdu, CHN

Website

http://www.kelun-biotech.com

Sichuan Kelun-Biotech Biopharmaceutical Co Ltd is an innovative biopharmaceutical company committed to the R&D, manufacturing and commercialization of novel drugs to address medical needs in China and globally. It is one of the first movers in the development of antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs), with over a decade of accumulated experience in ADC development. The company takes a systematic, indication-oriented approach to target the world's prevalent or hard-to-treat cancers, and other diseases and conditions affecting a large and underserved population.

Executives

Liu Gexin	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Si Chuan Ke Lun Yao Ye Gu Fen You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Cheng Du Ke Lun Jing Chuan Ke Ji You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Wellington Management Group Llp	2102 Investment manager
Merck & Co., Inc.	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Merck Sharp & Dohme Llc	2101 Beneficial owner
Ke Lun Guo Ji Fa Zhan You Xian Gong Si	2101 Beneficial owner
Li Jun	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Zhou Quan	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Idg Breyer Capital Fund Gp Associates L.p.	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Idg Breyer Capital Fund Gp Associates Ltd.	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Idg Breyer Capital Fund L.p.	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Victory Rhythm Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Wealthy Linkage Limited	2101 Beneficial owner
Ho Chi Sing	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you

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