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Amuse Group Holding (HKSE:08545) Predictability Rank


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What is Amuse Group Holding Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Amuse Group Holding Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Amuse Group Holding Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Amuse Group Holding (HKSE:08545) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Travel & Leisure » Amuse Group Holding Ltd (HKSE:08545) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
HKSE:03830 HKSE:00381 HKSE:00209 HKSE:01348 HKSE:01123 TSE:4661 HKSE:02020 TSE:7832 TSE:7309 HKSE:02331 MAT HAS PLNT TSE:7951 SZSE:300144 LSE:GAW HKSE:09992 YETI GOLF TSE:7731
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
No. 88 Yeung Uk Road, Flat B, 33/F, Plaza 88, Tsuen Wan, New Territories, Hong Kong, HKG
Website
https://www.amusegroupholding.com
Amuse Group Holding Ltd is a Hong Kong-based toy company. It is engaged in the designing, marketing, distribution and retail sales of toys and related products. Some of its brands are TOPI, FLAME TOYS, and SENTINEL. The company manages its business through three divisions namely sales of ODM toys to license holders, distribution of imported toys and related products and sales of own licensed toys and related products. It generates a majority of its revenue from the sale of ODM toys division. Geographically, the company generates a majority of its revenue from Japan.
Executives
Chu Guigui 2101 Beneficial owner
Lin Weiyi 2306 Nominee for another person
Weng Yulin 2101 Beneficial owner
Lam Hoi Yan 2101 Beneficial owner
Infinite Force Holdings Ltd 2101 Beneficial owner
Fong Wing Yan 2202 Interest of your spouse
Li Wai Keung 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you

Amuse Group Holding (HKSE:08545) Headlines

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