Central China New Life (HKSE:09983) Predictability Rank

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What is Central China New Life Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Central China New Life Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Central China New Life (HKSE:09983) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » Real Estate » Central China New Life Ltd (HKSE:09983) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

No. 19 Dirun Road Room 411, 4th floor Building 2 Jianye Office Building, Zhengdong New District, Henan Province, Zhengzhou, CHN

Website

http://www.ccnewlife.com.cn

With over 20 years of operating history, Central China New Life, or CCNL, is the largest property management company in central China with geographical focus in Henan province. CCNL generates core revenue from providing property management services as well as value-added services to property owners and non-property owners. CCNL's coverage spans across the main cities in Henan province. The firm also seeks to leverage on the Jianye brand to provide an integrated online-to-offline service app platform called Jianye+ to deepen its penetration in Henan as a leading lifestyle service provider.

Executives

Jpmorgan Chase & Co.	2106 Person having a security interest in shares
Seatown Private Credit (cayman) Feeder Fund Ii Lp
Seatown Private Credit Feeder Fund Lp
Seatown Private Credit Master Fund
Seatown Private Credit Master Fund Ii
Seatown Singapore Feeder Fund Lp
Temasek Holdings (private) Limited
Enjoy Start Limited	2501 Other
Wu Lam Li	2501 Other
Wu Po Sum	2501 Other
Hillhouse Capital Advisors, Ltd.	2102 Investment manager
Gaoling Fund, L.p.	2101 Beneficial owner
Morgan Stanley & Co. International Plc	2105 Underwriter
Morgan Stanley International Holdings Inc.	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Morgan Stanley International Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you

Central China New Life (HKSE:09983) Headlines

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