HLMN (Hillman Solutions) Predictability Rank

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What is Hillman Solutions Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Hillman Solutions Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Hillman Solutions Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Hillman Solutions Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Products » Hillman Solutions Corp (NAS:HLMN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1280 Kemper Meadow Drive, Forest Park, OH, USA, 45240

Website

https://www.hillmangroup.com

Hillman Solutions Corp is a provider of hardware-related products and related merchandising services to retail markets in North America. The company sells its products to hardware stores, home centers, mass merchants, pet supply stores, and other retail outlets. Its product lines include thousands of small parts such as fasteners and related hardware items; threaded rod and metal shapes; keys and accessories; builder's hardware; personal protective equipment, such as gloves and eye-wear; and identification items, such as tags and letters, numbers, and signs. The segments of the company are Hardware and Protective Solutions, which is the key revenue-generating segment; Robotics and Digital Solutions; and Canada. It has a business presence in the U.S., Canada and Mexico.

Executives

Robert O. Kraft	officer: CFO and Treasurer	ONE CVS DRIVE, WOONSOCKET RI 02895
Scott Ride	officer: President, Hillman Canada	10590 HAMILTON AVENUE, CINCINNATI OH 45231-0012
Philip Woodlief	director	10590 HAMILTON AVENUE, CINCINNATI OH 45231-0012
Aaron Jagdfeld	director	C/O GENERAC HOLDINGS INC., S45 W29290 HWY.59, WAUKESHA WI 53187
Jon Adinolfi	officer: Div President, Hillman US	10590 HAMILTON AVENUE, CINCINNATI OH 45231-0012
Aaron Jerrod Parker	officer: VP - Human Resources	1280 KEMPER MEADOW DR., FOREST PARK OH 45240
Randall J Fagundo	officer: See Remarks	4870 STERLING DR, C/O AMERICAN COIN MERCHANDISING INC, BOULDER CO 80301
Gary Seeds	officer: EVP, Sales and Field Service	10590 HAMILTON AVENUE, CINCINNATI OH 45231-0012
John W Swygert	director	OLLIE'S BARGAIN OUTLET, INC., 6295 ALLENTOWN BLVD., SUITE 1, HARRISBURG PA 17112
Diane Honda	director	C/O BARRACUDA NETWORKS, INC., 3175 S. WINCHESTER BLVD., CAMPBELL CA 95008
Ccmp Capital, Lp	10 percent owner	245 PARK AVENUE, 16TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10167
Douglas Cahill	director, officer: COB, President and CEO	1040 CHANCERY LANE, NASHVILLED TN 37215
Scott Kelley Moore	officer: Chief Technology Officer	10590 HAMILTON AVE., CINCINNATI OH 45231
Leary Dan O	director	10590 HAMILTON AVENUE, CINCINNATI OH 45231-0012
Ccmp Capital Gp, Llc	10 percent owner	1 ROCKEFELLER PLAZA, 16TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10020