Hampton Roads Bankshares (Hampton Roads Bankshares) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2003. Start your Free Trial

What is Hampton Roads Bankshares Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Hampton Roads Bankshares Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Hampton Roads Bankshares Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Hampton Roads Bankshares's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Hampton Roads Bankshares (Hampton Roads Bankshares) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Hampton Roads Bankshares Inc (NAS:HMPR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Website

https://www.xenithbank.com

Xenith Bankshares Inc. is US-based commercial bank which is engaged in general community and commercial banking business. The company offers a broad range of interest-bearing and noninterest-bearing deposit accounts, including commercial and retail checking accounts. It provides loan and advances and lending products to commercial and industrial, construction, real estate-commercial mortgage, real estate-residential mortgage and for various business purposes. The company also offers mortgage banking services such as originating and processing mortgage loans for sale to the secondary market. Its reportable segments are mortgage and corporate. The company's primary source of revenue comprises of interest income and fees earned from lending and investment activities.

Executives

Snead Thomas G Jr	director	1100 BOULDERS PARKWAY, RICHMOND VA 23225
Judy Carol Gavant	officer: SVP/Chief Accounting Officer	ONE JAMES CENTER, 901 EAST CARY STREET, SUITE 1700, RICHMOND VA 23219
Edward Grebow	director
James Floyd Burr	director	301 SOUTH COLLEGE STREET, CHARLOTTE NC 28288
Scott A. Reed	director	901 E. CARY STREET, ONE JAMES CENTER, SUITE 1700, RICHMOND VA 23219
Patrick E. Corbin	director	999 WATERSIDE DR., STE. 200, NORFOLK VA 23510
Robert Goldstein	10 percent owner
Eugene Ludwig	director, 10 percent owner	280 PARK AVENUE, 40TH FLOOR WEST, SUITE 401, NEW YORK NY 10017
John S Poelker	director	C/O 420 MAIN STREET, EVANSVILLE IN 47708
Jon F Weber	director	641 LYNNHAVEN PARKWAY, VIRGINIA BEACH VA 23457
Stephen J Gurgovits	director
Stephen P Theobald	officer: Chief Financial Officer & EVP	999 WATERSIDE DRIVE, SUITE 200, NORFOLK VA 23510
Tc Group Cayman Investment Holdings, L.p.	10 percent owner	C/O WALKERS CORPORATE SERVICES LIMITED, 190 ELGIN AVENUE, GEORGE TOWN, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-9001
Carlyle Financial Services Harbor, L.p.	10 percent owner	C/O THE CARLYLE GROUP, 1001 PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE, NW, WASHINGTON DC 20004-2505
Carlyle Financial Services, Ltd.	10 percent owner	C/O THE CARLYLE GROUP, 1001 PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE, NW, WASHINGTON DC 20004-2505