What is High Wire Networks Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
High Wire Networks Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
High Wire Networks Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
30 North Lincoln Street, Batavia, IL, USA, 60510
High Wire Networks Inc provider of managed cybersecurity, managed networks, and tech-enabled professional services delivered exclusively through a channel sales model. Its Overwatch managed security platform-as-a-service offers organizations end-to-end protection for networks, data, endpoints, and users through multiyear recurring revenue contracts in this fast-growing technology segment. The company generates its key revenue from Cyber security segment and operates all reporting segments in one geographical area (the United States).
Executives
| Mark William Porter |
director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer |
747 CHEEVER AVE, GENEVA IL 60134 |
| Keith William Hayter |
director, officer: President |
C/O MANTRA VENTURE GROUP LTD., 300 CROWN OAK CENTRE DRIVE, LONGWOOD FL 32750 |
| Roger Marcus Ponder |
director, officer: CEO |
C/O MANTRA VENTURE GROUP LTD., 300 CROWN OAK CENTRE DRIVE, LOONGWOOD FL 32750 |
| Glenn W. Parker |
director |
C/O MANTRA VENTURE GROUP LTD.,, #562-800 15355 24TH AVENUE, SURREY A1 V4A 2H9 |
| Patrick Dodd |
director, officer: Chief Technology Officer |
#312 - 1617 GRAVELY STREET, VANCOUVER A1 V5L 3A8 |
| Tommy David Unger |
director |
1162 MCGOWAN DRIVE, PRINCE GEORGE A1 V2M 6R1 |
| Elden Schorn |
director |
STE 1247 - 235 KEITH ROAD, WEST VANCOUVER A1 V7T 1L5 |
| Jonathan Michael Boughen |
director |
1765 AMBLE GREENE DRIVE, SURREY A1 V4A 7J1 |
| Buckley Con |
officer: CFO, PAO |
1140-1185 GEORGIA STREET WEST, VANCOUVER A1 V6E 4E6 |
| John Russell |
director, other: Chairman of Scientific Board |
3842 WEST 30TH AVE, VANCOUVER A1 V6S 1X1 |
| Larry Kristof |
director, 10 percent owner, officer: President, C.E.O. |
207 WEST HASTINGS STREET, SUITE 1205, VANCOUVER A1 V6C 3L2 |
| Sung Wook Kim |
director, officer: Vice President |
404 1790 BAYSHORE DRIVE, VANCOUVER A1 V6G 3G5 |
| Metradon Ventures Ltd |
10 percent owner |
UNIT 2905, BLOCK E, TUNG NING HOUSE, 9 OI YIN HOUSE, HONG KONG F4 |
| Dennis Petke |
10 percent owner, officer: Chief Financial Officer |
207 WEST HASTINGS STREET, SUITE 1205, VANCOUVER A1 V6B 1H7 |
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