IDR (Idaho Strategic Resources) Predictability Rank

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What is Idaho Strategic Resources Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Idaho Strategic Resources Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Idaho Strategic Resources Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Idaho Strategic Resources Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Metals & Mining » Idaho Strategic Resources Inc (AMEX:IDR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

201 N. Third Street, Coeur d’Alene, ID, USA, 83814

Website

https://www.idahostrategic.com

Idaho Strategic Resources Inc is a vertically integrated, operating junior mining company. It produces gold at the Golden Chest Mine. In addition to gold and gold production, the company maintains a strategic and domestic presence in the Critical Minerals sector and is focused on advancing its officially recognized Lemhi Pass, Diamond Creek, and Roberts Rare Earth Element projects in central Idaho.

Executives

Kevin G Shiell	director	STILLWATER MINING COMPANY, 1321 DISCOVERY DRIVE, BILLINGS MT 59102
Monique D Hayes	officer: Corporate Secretary	11115 E. MONTGOMERY, SUITE G, SPOKANE VALLEY WA 99206
John Swallow	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President	905 SOUTH JARVIS ROAD, COEUR D'ALENE ID 83814
Carolyn S Turner	director	P.O. BOX 87, KINGSTON ID 83839
Grant A Brackebusch	director, officer: Vice President	P.O. BOX 1019, KELLOGG IA 83837
Richard Scott Beaven	director	201 N. 3RD ST., COEUR D'ALENE ID 83814
Robert John Morgan	officer: VP Exploration	201 N 3RD ST, COEUR D ALENE ID 83814-2806
Juniper Resources Llc	other: Strategic Partnership	967 E PARKCENTER BLVD. #365, BOISE ID 83706
Delbert W Steiner	director	3555 COUNTRY CLUB DR, LEWISTON ID 83501
R. Patrick Highsmith	director, officer: President/CEO	6852 S. CLAYTON WAY, CENTENNIAL CO 80122
Mine Systems Design Inc	10 percent owner	PO BOX 1019, KELLOGG ID 83837
M Kathleen Sims	director	PO BOX 1019, KELLOGG ID 93837
Ivan R Linscott	director	PO BOX 1019, KELLOGG ID 83837
William C Rust	director	PO BOX 1019, KELLOGG ID 83837
Fred W Brackebusch	director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO	P.O. BOX 1019, KELLOGG ID 83837