What is Idaho Strategic Resources Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Idaho Strategic Resources Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Idaho Strategic Resources Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
201 N. Third Street, Coeur d’Alene, ID, USA, 83814
Idaho Strategic Resources Inc is a vertically integrated, operating junior mining company. It produces gold at the Golden Chest Mine. In addition to gold and gold production, the company maintains a strategic and domestic presence in the Critical Minerals sector and is focused on advancing its officially recognized Lemhi Pass, Diamond Creek, and Roberts Rare Earth Element projects in central Idaho.
Executives
| Kevin G Shiell |
director |
STILLWATER MINING COMPANY, 1321 DISCOVERY DRIVE, BILLINGS MT 59102 |
| Monique D Hayes |
officer: Corporate Secretary |
11115 E. MONTGOMERY, SUITE G, SPOKANE VALLEY WA 99206 |
| John Swallow |
director, 10 percent owner, officer: President |
905 SOUTH JARVIS ROAD, COEUR D'ALENE ID 83814 |
| Carolyn S Turner |
director |
P.O. BOX 87, KINGSTON ID 83839 |
| Grant A Brackebusch |
director, officer: Vice President |
P.O. BOX 1019, KELLOGG IA 83837 |
| Richard Scott Beaven |
director |
201 N. 3RD ST., COEUR D'ALENE ID 83814 |
| Robert John Morgan |
officer: VP Exploration |
201 N 3RD ST, COEUR D ALENE ID 83814-2806 |
| Juniper Resources Llc |
other: Strategic Partnership |
967 E PARKCENTER BLVD. #365, BOISE ID 83706 |
| Delbert W Steiner |
director |
3555 COUNTRY CLUB DR, LEWISTON ID 83501 |
| R. Patrick Highsmith |
director, officer: President/CEO |
6852 S. CLAYTON WAY, CENTENNIAL CO 80122 |
| Mine Systems Design Inc |
10 percent owner |
PO BOX 1019, KELLOGG ID 83837 |
| M Kathleen Sims |
director |
PO BOX 1019, KELLOGG ID 93837 |
| Ivan R Linscott |
director |
PO BOX 1019, KELLOGG ID 83837 |
| William C Rust |
director |
PO BOX 1019, KELLOGG ID 83837 |
| Fred W Brackebusch |
director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO |
P.O. BOX 1019, KELLOGG ID 83837 |
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