IMVT (Immunovant) Predictability Rank

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What is Immunovant Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Immunovant Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Immunovant Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Immunovant Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Immunovant Inc (NAS:IMVT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

320 West 37th Street, 6th Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10018

Website

https://www.immunovant.com

Immunovant Inc is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company. It is focused on enabling normal lives for patients with autoimmune diseases. The company's product includes batoclimab and IMVT-1402 targets the neonatal Fc receptor (FcRn).

Executives

Jay S Stout	officer: Chief Technology Officer	C/O VERSARTIS, INC., 4200 BOHANNON DR., SUITE 250, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Eva Renee Barnett	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O IMMUNOVANT, INC., 320 WEST 37TH STREET, 6TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10018
Peter Salzmann	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	320 W 37TH STREET, 3RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10016
Andrew J. Fromkin	director	C/O RADIUS HEALTH, INC., 201 BROADWAY, 6TH FL, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
William L. Macias	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O IMMUNOVANT, INC., 320 WEST 37TH STREET, 6TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10018
Roivant Sciences Ltd.	10 percent owner	CLARENDON HOUSE, 2 CHURCH STREET, HAMILTON D0 HM11
Atul Pande	director	C/O AXOVANT SCIENCES, INC., 1441 BROADWAY, 3RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10018
Douglas J. Hughes	director	C/O EARGO, INC., 2665 NORTH FIRST STREET, SUITE 300, SAN JOSE CA 95134
Mark S. Levine	officer: Chief Legal Officer	1601 TRAPELO ROAD, SUITE 284, WALTHAM MA 02451
Julia G. Butchko	officer: Chief Dev. & Tech. Officer	320 W 37TH STREET, 3RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10016
George V Migausky	director	C/O DYAX CORP., 300 TECHNOLOGY SQUARE, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Frank Torti	director	2855 SAND HILL ROAD, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Rita Jain	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O AKEBIA THERAPEUTICS, INC., 245 FIRST STREET, SUITE 1100, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Michael James Elliott	officer: Chief Scientific Officer	320 WEST 37TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10018
Eric Venker	director	C/O ROIVANT SCIENCES, INC., 320 WEST 37TH STREET, 6TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10018