Inseego (Inseego) Predictability Rank

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What is Inseego Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Inseego Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Inseego (Inseego) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » Inseego Corp (NAS:INSG) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

INO:Germany INO:Germany

Address

9710 Scranton Road, Suite 200, Suite 200, CA, USA, 92121

Website

https://www.inseego.com

Inseego Corp is into the design and development of fixed and mobile wireless solutions (advanced 4G and 5G NR), Industrial Internet of Things and cloud solutions for enterprises, service providers, small and medium-sized businesses, governments, and consumers around the globe. The product portfolio consists of fixed and mobile device-to-cloud solutions that provide secure end-to-end IoT services with deep business intelligence. The Company's products and services include intelligent mobile hotspots, wireless routers for IoT applications, USB modems, integrated telematics and mobile tracking hardware devices, which are supported by applications software and cloud services designed to enable customers to easily analyze data insights and configure and manage their hardware.

Executives

Tavistock Financial, Llc	10 percent owner	9350 CONROY WINDERMERE ROAD, WINDERMERE FL 34786
Joseph Lewis	10 percent owner	PO BOX N7776, LYFORD BAHAMAS
Philip G Brace	director	LSI LOGIC CORP, 1621 BARBER LANE, MILPITAS CA 95035
Steven Gatoff	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O INSEEGO CORP, 9710 SCRANTON ROAD, SUITE 200, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Dan Mondor	officer: President and CEO	4375 RIVER GREEN PARKWAY, SUITE 100, DULUTH GA 30096
Ashish Sharma	officer: President IoT & Mobile	9710 SCRANTON ROAD, SUITE 200, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Christopher H. Lytle	director	9710 SCRANTON ROAD, SUITE 200, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Robert G Barbieri	officer: Chief Financial Officer	380 ST. PETER STREET, ST. PAUL MN 55102
Stephanie Lynne Bowers	director	9710 SCRANTON ROAD, SUITE 200, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Doug Kahn	officer: EVP of Operations	9710 SCRANTON ROAD, SUITE 200, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Wei Ding	officer: VP Accounting, Controller	9710 SCRANTON ROAD, SUITE 200, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Craig L Foster	officer: Chief Financial Officer	2580 ORCHARD PARKWAY, SAN JOSE CA 95131
Braslyn Ltd.	10 percent owner	CAY HOUSE, EP TAYLOR DRIVE N7776, LYFORD CAY, NEW PROVIDENCE C5 00000
Brian Miller	director, 10 percent owner	115 EAST PUTNAM AVENUE, GREENWICH CT 06830
Stephen M Smith	officer: Chief Financial Officer