What is Iovance Biotherapeutics Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Iovance Biotherapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Iovance Biotherapeutics (Iovance Biotherapeutics) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
825 Industrial Road, Suite 400, San Carlos, CA, USA, 94070
Iovance Biotherapeutics Inc is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, pioneering a transformational approach to treating cancer by harnessing the human immune system's ability to recognize and destroy diverse cancer cells using therapies personalized for each patient. The company is preparing for potential U.S. regulatory approval and commercialization of the first autologous T-cell therapy to address a solid tumor cancer. its objective is to be the leader in innovating, developing, and delivering tumor-infiltrating lymphocyte, or TIL, therapies for patients with solid tumor cancers.
Executives
| Merrill A Mcpeak |
director |
PO BOX 500 (M/S 55-985), 14200 SW KARL BRAUN DRIVE, BEAVERTON OR 97077-0001 |
| Wayne P. Rothbaum |
director |
C/O QUOGUE CAPITAL LLC, 1285 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 35TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019 |
| Wendy L Yarno |
director |
|
| Frederick G Vogt |
officer: General Counsel |
2120 HEMLOCK RD., WEST NORRITON PA 19403 |
| Iain D. Dukes |
director |
112 W. 34TH STREET, 17TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10120 |
| Wendy L Dixon |
director |
|
| Ryan D Maynard |
director |
RIGEL PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 1180 VETERANS BLVD., SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080 |
| Michael Weiser |
director |
C/O SPACES, SUITE 265, 3350 VIRGINIA STREET, MIAMI FL 33133 |
| Igor Bilinsky |
officer: Chief Operating Officer |
C/O VICAL INCORPORATED, 10390 PACIFIC CENTER COURT, SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
| Jean-marc Bellemin |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
C/O GRITSTONE ONCOLOGY, INC., 5858 HORTON STREET, SUITE 210, EMERYVILLE CA 94608 |
| Michael Swartzburg |
officer: VP, Finance |
C/O AVALANCHE BIOTECHNOLOGIES, INC., 1035 O'BRIEN DRIVE, SUITE A, MENLO PARK CA 94025 |
| Athena Countouriotis |
director |
C/O AMBIT BIOSCIENCES CORPORATION, 11080 ROSELLE STREET, SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
| Finckenstein Friedrich Graf |
officer: Chief Medical Officer |
999 SKYWAY ROAD, SUITE 150, SAN CARLOS CA 94070 |
| Timothy E Morris |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
ACELRX PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 351 GALVESTON DRIVE, REDWOOD CITY CA 94063 |
| Maria Fardis |
director, officer: President and CEO |
C/O PARMACYCLICS, INC., 995 EAST ARQUES AVENUE, SUNNYVALE CA 94085 |
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